Sanqi Mutual Entertainment (002555) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: The Elf Festival Helps Q3 Revenue Increase 56%

Sanqi Mutual Entertainment (002555) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: “The Elf Festival” Helps Q3 Revenue Increase 56%

The company announced the 2019 third quarter report on October 30, 2019.

In Q3 2019, operating income was 34.

89 billion, an annual increase of 56.

29%; 西安耍耍网 Net profit attributable to mothers in Q3 2019 5.

23 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.


Comment: 2019Q3 achieved operating income of 34.

890,000 yuan, an increase of 56 in ten years.

29%, an increase of 23 from the previous month.


The quarter-on-quarter growth was mainly due to the good performance of new products such as the Fairy Ceremony in Q3.

Net profit attributable to mothers in Q3 20195.

23 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

37%, down 9 from the previous month.


Mobile games grew at a high speed and the market share increased steadily.

The company continues to maintain its advantage in the domestic mobile game distribution business market, and the market share of the domestic mobile game business of the H1 company in 2019 will further increase to 10.


Mobile games such as “One Blade” and “Douro Continent” have 杭州桑拿网 maintained high sales for a long time.

The highest monthly flow of H1 exceeds 13.

500 million, with more than 1.

3.3 billion, with the highest monthly active users exceeding 34 million.

The performance of the third season “Elf Festival” is better. After the item name is modified, the product flow from the IOS bestseller list has risen. The fourth season “Elf Festival” is expected to enter the profit recovery period.

In terms of product reserves, “Super Ball”, “Legend NB”, “Codename YZD”, “Legendary”, “Codename DG”, “Dark Descendants”, “Duro Land 3D”, “Jiangshan and Beauty” and many other productsWaiting online.

Users turn to mobile, and web game revenues decrease.

2019H1 web game revenue 6.

44 trillion, down 29 a year.

20%, down 12 from the previous month.


It is mainly affected by two factors: the shift of users to mobile terminals and the decrease in the number of web game products.

The company ranked first in the service platform launch list in 2019. The self-developed product “Dark Angel” was launched in July 2019.

The company’s scale has strengthened cooperation with domestic top web game R & D teams through strategic investment and business cooperation. It has gradually refined its main boutique games to increase user stickiness, stabilize product life cycles, and further stabilize revenue.

The divestment of non-core business and zero auto parts revenue.

The auto parts business income in 2019H1 was 0 yuan. After the company sold its subsidiary Wuhu Ningzhong Auto Parts Technology Co., Ltd. in 2018H2, the company completely replaced the auto parts business.

Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

The company’s mobile game market share has steadily increased, and domestic and overseas markets have gone hand in hand.

Products such as “One Sword”, “Duro Continent”, and “Spirit Festival” fully prove the company’s ability to continue to explode.
In addition to legendary and miracle products, the company has stocks of various products and expects to perform well.
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 19/20/21 will be 20 respectively.



$ 0.6 billion (Due to the excellent product data of the Fairy Ceremony, etc., we adjusted our profit forecast to gradually reach 20.



8.9 billion), corresponding to EPS0.



38 yuan, PE is 18/15/13 times.

According to comparable companies, the median P / E of 2019 is 20.

79 times, we raised the company’s target price to 20.

58 yuan, maintain the “recommended” level.

Risk Warning: The game version number review and other policies, the game flow is lower than expected, and the product launch is postponed.

Dongfang Cable (603606) Investment Value Analysis Report: Pure Submarine Cable Leads Benefit from Rush Installation

Dongfang Cable (603606) Investment Value Analysis Report: Pure Submarine Cable Leads Benefit from Rush Installation

Core point of view The company is a leader in pure submarine cables in the domestic market. The market demand began to accelerate with the rise of offshore wind power. Benefiting from the tightening supply in the industry and the improvement of competitive advantages, the company enjoyed both volume and price increases and strong growth momentum.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.



96 yuan (corresponding to PE19 / 15/11 times), the first coverage, given “overweight” rating and target price of 13 yuan (corresponding to 23 times PE in 2019).

   Both the land and sea cables are expanding at the same time.

The company is a leading company in the cable industry, with operations including land cable systems, submarine cable systems and offshore engineering.

The company started with a traditional land cable. Since 2005, it has transitioned into the field of high value-added submarine cables. It has taken the lead in achieving domestic breakthroughs in 110/220 / 500kV (including soft joints) submarine cables.9% increased to approximately 41% in 2019H1, and the product structure was significantly optimized.

At present, the submarine cable business has become the company’s core driving force for growth, and its scale has accelerated.

900 million yuan (+7 a year).

4%) and return to the net profit of mother 1.

80 ppm (ten years + 220%).

   Offshore wind power is rushing to install, and the demand for submarine cables is accelerating.

The price of a submarine cable is 3-7 times that of a land cable of the same specification, accounting for about 10% of the investment in a sea wind project.

The domestic sea breeze has accelerated its rise and entered the rush installation cycle. It is expected that the new installed capacity in 2019-2021 will reach 2/3.

5 / 5GW, corresponding to market space of 34/58/72 billion, CAGR of about 46%.

Due to the concentrated market structure of capital, regional location, technology, and qualifications in the submarine cable industry, the supply side is mainly Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optoelectronics, and Han cable. There are four manufacturers, including Dongfang Cable and Zhongtian Technology.First echelon.

It is expected that the offshore wind power project will develop from offshore to offshore in the future. The large length of submarine cables, the key technologies of soft joints and comprehensive service capabilities are gradually prominent.Expected to benefit from the rapid growth of sea breeze rush equipment.

   Pure submarine cable faucet, solid competitive advantage.

The company’s submarine cable capacity industry ranks first, with a current corresponding output value of about 2 billion. The proportion of submarine cable business income continues to increase, benefiting from the rise of Haifeng’s performance and achieving highly flexible growth.

The company replenished order 2 from 2016 to 2019Q3.




7 trillion, currently in the order of about 26 trillion, market share of about 32%, the existing submarine cable project contract qualification to strengthen the single capacity, orders continue to grow can be expected.

  With the tight supply of submarine cables and the concentration of 杭州夜生活网 competition, the company’s downstream costs have been distorted smoothly and benefited from price increases. The company expects that the gross profit margin of submarine cables in 2019H1 will exceed 40%, and both volume and price will rise.

In addition, the company plans to expand the output value of 2 billion submarine cables by 2021H1, and the market share will gradually increase under the condition of full orders.

  The company is leading the technology in the field of large lengths and flexible joints, and has built high technical barriers to maintain a stable competitive advantage and market share.

   Risk factors: The installed capacity of offshore wind power is less than expected, the submarine cable wins the bid less than expected, the price of raw materials changes, and the cost of offshore wind power drops less than expected.

   Investment suggestion: The company is a leader in pure submarine cable. The market demand begins to accelerate the volume with the rise of offshore wind power. Benefiting from tighter supply in the industry and enhanced competitive advantages, the company enjoys both volume and price increases, and strong growth momentum.

We forecast the company’s net profit to be 3 in 2019-2021.



30,000 yuan, EPS is 0.



96 yuan, corresponding PE is 19/15/11 times; referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the company is given a target price of 13 yuan (corresponding to 23 times PE in 2019).

Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) Company Dynamics Review: Daxing assumes rock solid asset quality

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) Company Dynamics Review: Daxing assumes rock solid asset quality

Event: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China released its third quarter performance report, and achieved operating income of 6,469 in 19Q3.

42 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

11%; realized net profit of 2517.

12 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.


The growth rate of profit in the first three quarters increased quarter by quarter.

1Q19, 1H19, 9M19 companies’ net profit growth rates were 4 respectively.

1%, 4.

7%, 5.


From the perspective of income, the double-digit growth in non-interest income partially replaced the change in the growth rate of index revenue. Last year, the income from intervention fees affected by the new regulations increased by only a few digits. This year’s financial management transition is progressing smoothly.1H19 increased by 8.

From the point of view of expenditure, the company’s supplementary non-performing control is excellent, and the growth rate of provision provision dropped from 30% -40% in 1Q17-3Q19 to less than 20% in 2Q10-3Q19.

The rise in the cost of debt has led to a narrowing of interest margins, but the company remains superior among comparable peers.

3Q19 net interest margin fell 3bp to 2 compared to 1H19.

The reason for the narrowing of interest rate spreads is 26%. The reason for the narrowing of the spread is that the return on the asset side is falling, and the cost on the debt side is rising. The upward and downward trends are slightly different.

The rise in the level of debt interest has expanded to the competition for supplementary deposits. In the first three quarters of this year, the whole society’s supplementary loans increased supplementary deposits, and all institutions have a need to transfer deposits.

At the same time, in the past few years, bank funds were injected into other financial systems and Internet financial companies. After the new rules on asset management, disintermediation funds will undergo a large-scale reorganization, but they will gradually return. It is normal for banks to increase debt costs when they accept these funds.

In the future, the trend of net interest margin may be a downward trend, but the company 夜来香体验网 will consider peer benchmarking, and the interest payment level will remain better among comparable peers.

Negative generation is controlled at a low level, and the correlation between improvement in asset quality and the decline in macroeconomic decline.

Non-performing rate in the third quarter of 19

44%, down 4bp from 2Q19.

We estimate that the net annual generation rate of non-performing 3Q19 single season is still 0.

Below 6%, the lowest level in 15 years.

The correlation between the improvement of ICBC’s asset quality and the macroeconomic downturn is weakening because of the adjustment of ICBC’s credit structure in these years, the reduction of loans to low- and mid-end manufacturing, loans to high-end manufacturing, personal mortgage loans, and loans in some emerging areasThere has been an increase, a better credit structure layout, and the use of big data fintech methods, and the use of new processes, new systems, and new products to control and increase the quality of loans.

Provision coverage ratio in the third quarter of 198 was 198.

09%, up 6pct from the previous month.

Investment suggestion: ICBC’s fundamentals are very stable with a dividend yield of 4.

4%, excellent asset quality performance, 0.

8x20PB is seriously underestimated.

In the environment where the market’s risk-free interest rate is low, it is suitable for incremental domestic funds that are pursuing stable returns. From a global perspective, the ROE of banks with equivalent foreign valuations is not as good as ICBC. Under the background of more and more stock allocation, ICBC is also facing heavyestimate.
We expect ICBC’s net profit to grow by 5 per year in 2019/2020.

twenty four.

6%, maintaining the “highly recommended” rating.

Risk Warning: Deteriorating asset quality due to unexpected economic downturn.

Po Laiya (603605): Maintaining rapid growth in the second quarter, new brand and new category layout foster future growth points

Po Laiya (603605): Maintaining rapid growth in the second quarter, new brand and new category layout foster future growth points

Core views The development of the main brand tuyere category and e-commerce business are the core foundations to ensure that the company’s performance continues to grow rapidly 南宁桑拿 this year.

Since 18 years, Polaia has accelerated its approach to youthfulness in the development of new products and brand marketing. New products cater to the needs of the party and make-up, and marketing has more cooperation with KOL to guide and promote.

As for the e-commerce business, due to the adjustment of the promotion method (more discounts for merchandise are adjusted to marketing promotion), the replacement of the short-term growth rate of online GMV cannot be simply mapped to the decline in the company’s online revenue growth.We expect that the company’s online revenue will basically maintain the rapid growth trend since 18 years in the second quarter. Starting this year, the company will have a better understanding of the online and offline segmentation and balance of interests from a strategic perspective. This will be more beneficial to the company’s online and offline channels in the long run.Sustainable and healthy development.

Involving more new brand expansion through investment is a potential focus for the company in the medium term.

On June 19, the company announced the capital contribution1.

The US $ 3.5 billion Jiaxing Woyong Investment Partnership was established to seek development opportunities in cosmetics and new marketing ecology.

In terms of new brands, the company has invested in cooperation with brands such as Korean beauty YNM, Japanese high-end cosmetics I-KAMI, makeup TZZ, etc., focusing on high-growth categories such as makeup and emerging marketing methods for social e-commerce, to cultivate more growth points after 19 yearsThe company has a relatively more flexible cooperation model and incentive mechanism. It is expected that the subsequent expansion of internationalization and multi-brand and multi-category will attract more brand extensions.

The domestic cosmetics industry has a bright future, and the company’s mechanism and flexible incentives are more conducive to the growth of its short- and medium-term performance.

As one of the leading players in the fully competitive industry, the company merged and shared the cake of the rapid growth of the domestic cosmetics market. Instead, the company established a variety of incentives such as brand distribution, wages and bonuses. After the listing, the company’s incentive mechanism was further optimized.Pursue the maximization of sales and the minimization of maximization, so that employees become the company’s operators; external teams through the establishment of a partnership system to ensure the company’s talent gradient construction and long-term healthy and sustainable development, to achieve faster, healthier and controllable expansion.
This flexible incentive and decision-making mechanism gives the company stronger learning and adaptability in the rapidly changing domestic cosmetics market environment, and gradually establishes its own brand image and competitive advantage in young consumers and low-line markets.

Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations We maintain 1 for the company’s 2019-2021 earnings.

89 yuan, 2.

47 yuan and 3.

The profit forecast of 20 yuan is maintained at 40 times PE of the company in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 75.

60 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks suggest that e-commerce growth is slower than expected, new product development risks, macroeconomic fluctuation risks, market competition risks, etc.

CITIC Securities (600030) performance review for the first half of 2019: self-operated business is the main driver of performance

CITIC Securities (600030) performance review for the first half of 2019: self-operated business is the main driver of performance

Performance growth was in line with expectations.

In the first half of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 217.

9.1 billion, +9 in ten years.

00%; net profit attributable to mother is 64.

4.6 billion, +15 per year.

82%, net profit of 64 non-return to mother.

1 billion, ten years +15.

65%, the quality of net profit is good; total assets at the end of the period were 7,238.

6.6 billion yuan, up 10 from the end of 2018

83%, attributable to the shareholders’ equity is 1560.

1.0 billion, an increase of 1 over the end of 2018.

87%, lever ratio is 3.

90 times, an increase of 0 from the end of 2018.

24 times.

The overall revenue structure is balanced.

Brokerage, investment bank, asset management, credit, self-employed and other businesses’ net income accounted for 17 of the revenue respectively.

43%, 8.

28%, 12.

23%, 6.

32%, 32.

93% and 18.

55%, of which net income from self-operated business accounted for the remainder of the increase compared to the end of 2018, +11.

31pct, the proportion of other businesses’ net income is stable, and the company’s business structure is generally balanced.

During the reporting period, net income from proprietary operations had a positive contribution to net profit, but net income from changes in fair value had a negative contribution to net profit conversion.

Equity and bond underwriting both grew.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s net income from securities underwriting business was 18.

4.0 billion, +3 per year.

09%, mainly driven by the double growth of the scale of underwriting of stock bonds.

Reporting period: The company completed the underwriting amount of A shares of RMB 1228.

6.9 billion yuan (including private placement of assets), with a market share of 20.

13%, ranking first in the market, and the amount of equity underwriting is +34 per year.

70%, of which the underwriting amount of the IPO is RMB 160.

2.9 billion, +101 per year.

62%, the refinancing lead underwriting amount was RMB 1068.

4 billion, +28南京夜生活网.

31%; the company’s main underwriting amount is RMB 4,528.

6.9 billion yuan, market share4.

92%, the bond underwriting amount and the number of underwriting rank the first in the industry, the main underwriting amount +72 per second.56%; the company’s A-share major asset restructuring transaction amounted to approximately RMB 37.5 billion, ranking third in the industry.

As of August 22, as the main sponsor, the company sponsored 11 science and technology board companies, ranking third in the industry, providing protection for investment banking business income in the second half of the year.

Brokerage business net income and market share dropped slightly.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s net income from brokerage fees was 37.

9.9 billion yuan, at least -7.

61%, mainly dragged down by the subsidiary’s brokerage business. During the reporting period, the subsidiary’s brokerage business net income was -7 per year.


During the reporting period, the company’s agency stock fund transactions totaled RMB 8.

2 trillion yuan, with a market share of 5.

55%, a total of -0 compared to the same period last year.

45pct, mainly because the company’s institutional customers account for a relatively high proportion, institutional customers turnover rate is lower than individual customers, resulting in market share decline.

Proprietary business income is the main driver of net profit growth.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s net operating income (net investment income-investment income to associates and joint ventures + net net income from changes in fair value) was 71.

7.5 billion, +45 a year.

01%, mainly benefiting from the market recovery, increasing investment income from disposal of financial instruments (+490 each time).


Net income from proprietary operations was the main driver of the increase in net profit attributable to mothers.

At the end of the reporting period, the company’s financial assets were 3,197.

9.8 billion, an increase of 6 from the end of 2018.

85%, of which 2,663 are financial assets traded.

3.4 billion, other debt investment was 368.

7.5 billion, investment in other equity instruments was 165.

9 billion; the nominal amount of derivative financial instruments is 10,752.

6.9 billion yuan, +7 from the end of 2018.


Asset management scale shrinks.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s net income from the client’s asset management business was 26.

6.6 billion a year-8.

42%, mainly affected by the shrinkage of asset management scale.

At the end of the reporting period, the company’s asset management scale was RMB 12,969.

1.3 billion a year -15.

44%, actively managing the scale of RMB 5,531.

1.1 billion per year -3.

44%, of which, the scale of collective asset management plans, the size of single asset management plans and the scale of special asset management plans are divided by -22.

90%, -14.

58%, -50.


At the end of the reporting period, the company ‘s private equity asset management business (excluding social security funds, basic pensions, enterprise annuities, occupational annuities, large collective products, pension collective products, asset securitization products) market share under the new asset management regulations.

98%, ranking first in the industry.

The scale of stock pledges and funds raised doubled.In the first half of 2019, the company’s net interest income was 13.

7.8 billion, +47 per year.

85%, mainly benefited from the increase in the scale of stock pledges and funds raised.

Affected by the market recovery, the decline in credit risk and the active influence of investors, at the end of the reporting period, the company’s own capital stock pledge size was 436.

8.3 billion, with a surplus of 644.

8.8 billion yuan, respectively +13 from the end of 2018.

53%, 12.

75%; provision for impairment of financial assets purchased under resale during the reporting period3.

8.5 billion per year -12.


Investment Advice.

It is expected that the company’s EPS for 2019 and 2020 will be 1.

10 yuan, 1.

33 yuan, corresponding to the closing price on August 23, 2019, the PE in 2019 and 2020 are 20.

58 times, 17.

02 times, PB is 1.

79 times, giving the company a cautious recommendation level.

risk warning.

The economy exceeded expectations, the stock market fell sharply, and the Sino-US trade friction worsened.

Gaode Infrared (002414): Over 500 Million Military Contracts Concentrated Extension and Efforts to Maintain High Growth in 2020

Gaode Infrared (002414): Over 500 Million Military Contracts Concentrated Extension and Efforts to Maintain High Growth in 2020
Incident From December 19 to December 31, 2019, the company issued three announcements of important contracts for daily operations, with a total contract value exceeding 500 million yuan.  Commenting on the record high performance in 2019, the final new growth single-year 2020 high-growth foundation in the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 10.580,000 yuan, an increase of 107 in ten years.76%; net profit attributable to mothers2.350,000 yuan, an increase of 142 in ten years.29%, revenue and profit hit a record high.  The company expects to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 2019.9.8 billion -2.6.4 billion, an annual increase of 50% -100%.Since the expiration of Handan Mechanical and Electrical’s performance commitment period involves the accrual of excess award amounts, it will bring about an increase in the cost of the breakthrough amount. Handan Mechanical and Electrical’s 2015-2019 performance commitments totaled 2.1.6 billion, 40% of the excess is used as a performance reward, and Handan Electromechanical has completed 2 from 2015 to 2018.With a net profit of 8.7 billion, assuming Handan ‘s net profit is 80 million this year, a total of 60 million expenses will need to be accrued this year as performance rewards. After excluding Handan ‘s performance rewards, the company ‘s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 will be about 2.5.8 billion-3.2.4 billion, an increase of 95% to 145% in ten years.  From December 19, 2019 to December 31, 2019, the company issued three announcements of important contracts for daily operations, with a total contract value exceeding 500 million yuan.Among them, some products are the first batch of new stereotyped military products, and some products are the first release of the company’s traditional advantage model products in the new military field. The two types of new business involve contract amounts exceeding 2.9 trillion; in addition, there are nearly 2.The 200 million contract is a follow-up contract to the first batch of contracts in April 2019, with an increase in contract value of nearly $ 100 million.We expect that the company’s infrared-related business in 2019 will continue and maintain a certain growth in 2020, and the nearly $ 400 million new product contract will be the basis for the company’s high growth in 2020.  A certain type of weapon system is expected to begin mass production this year. Our army and the military trade market have ample space. The company is the first private enterprise in China to obtain the overall qualification of a complete weapon system. It has officially undertaken the development of a certain type of weapon system and actively participated in a number ofPre-research and bidding for the complete weapon system of the new system.In 2014, the company obtained the “Registration Certificate for Weapon Equipment Manufacturing Unit” and “Warm Equipment Research and Production License” issued by the General Equipment Department of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and the National Defense Science and Technology Administration respectively after the addition of the license.The overall development qualification of the new complete weapon system breaks through the history of the overall parts and components matching of the previous private enterprises in the field of weapon equipment research and production, making the company the first private enterprise to enter the field of complete weapon system development.  The company successfully acquired Handan Electromechanical in 2015, and the business field was successfully extended to the field of pyrotechnics, which helps the company to make full use of its mature management experience and talents, qualifications and other advantages in the field of scientific research and production of pyrotechnic products to make overall plans for the production of pyrotechnic productsActively develop a series of precision guided weapon systems to achieve mass production of a certain type of weapon system as soon as possible.  In 2016, the company won the overall bid for a certain type of weapon system, obtained the overall development task of the weapon system issued by the Army Equipment Department, and officially undertook the overall development task of the national complete weapon system.In the same year, the company obtained approval for a series of complete arms system products for military trade export, and vigorously promoted arms system products for military trade exports and domestic batch production.After years of development and testing, an army weapon system is expected to be mass-produced in 2020. This product has a broad market space in our army, military trade and other fields.  High-end infrared chips continue to break through and break through the high-end core devices in the infrared industry. The company has become the only company in China that successfully built three batches of detector chip production lines. It has achieved a high-volume production capacity of “China’s infrared core” with completely independent intellectual property rights., Becoming the most complete infrared thermal imaging detector chip and application solution supplier in China.  In 2019, the company’s 1280 × 1024 @ 12μm large area array uncooled infrared detector has completed the finalization work in the report. It will soon enter the small batch production stage and will be the main force for special applications such as high-end military and high-end civil applications in the future.The company’s high-end mercury-tellurium medium-wave refrigeration type 1280 × 1024 @ 12μm large area array infrared detector project has passed the technical achievement appraisal and represents the highest level of domestic refrigeration infrared detector chips.  Wafer-level packaging production line for batch production and supply. The downstream civilian product market expanded and developed. The company completed the construction of the first domestic non-refrigerated wafer-level packaging production line, and realized the batch production and supply of some products based on this. The product line has covered the high, middle, and low end.To meet the needs of various customers.With the mass production of the company’s wafer-level packaged detectors, packaging efficiency will be greatly improved, device costs will be effectively reduced, and the civilian product market will expand the scale of more application scenarios through cost reduction.  The company’s subsidiary, Zhigan Technology, optimized the production supply chain, improved 武汉夜网论坛 production capacity and efficiency, and achieved rapid growth in sales performance. The number of products produced and shipped in the first half of the year exceeded the total in 2018.In the field of consumer electronics, the company officially released MobIRAir, an infrared thermal imaging mobile phone accessory, on April 22, adopting a self-developed 120 × 90 @ 17μm wafer-level packaged detector by Gaode, which is the first wafer-level packaged detector to be launched after mass production.This consumer-grade product is the first first-line manufacturer’s mobile phone thermal imaging plug-in with a price of about 1,000 yuan. At the same time, the company has also obtained in many markets such as outdoor hunting, industrial online temperature measurement, inspection and quarantine, and smart home.Important breakthrough.  Earnings forecast and investment grade: concentrated growth in military contracts, performance is expected to maintain rapid growth, maintaining the “overweight” rating company’s infrared core device advantage expansion, military products tasks maintain rapid growth; the company expands the entire industrial chain based on infrared detection weapons and equipment, a certain weaponSystem batch production is imminent, and the volume is expected to continue in the next two years; the company is vigorously promoting the application of infrared detection technology in the new civilian field, and has already been applied in many fields, which is expected to become the company’s new profit growth point.It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to mother from 2019 to 2021 will be 2.31, 5.35, 6.72 ppm, an increase of 75 per year.09%, 131.54%, 25.50%, corresponding to 19 to 21 years of EPS are 0.25, 0.57, 0.72 yuan, corresponding to the current expected PE is 89, 38, 30 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

China National Travel Service (601888) Tracking Report-Revisiting the Trend and Impact of Hainan’s Outlying Islands Tax Free Policy

China National Travel Service (601888) Tracking Report-Revisiting the Trend and Impact of Hainan’s Outlying Islands Tax Free Policy

Recently, high-level government officials frequently released signals to support the construction of Hainan Province into a free trade port.

In addition, on November 4, 2019, Caesars Tourism announced the establishment of Hainan Tongsheng Shijia Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. with its registered capital in Haikou.

Do these issues herald Hainan’s relaxation of the tax exemption policy for outlying islands and the further realization of “island-wide tax exemption”?

If the tax exemption policy is adjusted or the island-wide tax exemption is adjusted, will the monopoly and tax exempt income in Hainan be affected by the reorganization?

The market’s doubts about these issues have recently increased again, and the company has previously undergone significant adjustments.

In this regard, our comments are as follows: Hainan’s island-wide tax exemption is a long-term project, and even liberalization has more advantages than disadvantages.

1) In the current environment where all domestic sectors are generally open to the outside world, Hainan actively promotes the implementation of the island’s tax exemption from a local perspective, which is in line with the general trend, and the central government has also increased the opening of Hainan to a higher level, soIn terms of direction, “Taiwan-wide tax exemption” is the 北京桑拿洗浴保健 direction of Hainan’s active efforts.

However, in general, we believe that there will be many difficulties in the integration of tax-free integration across the island that need to be considered and resolved. At present, the operability is low, and it needs to be carried out gradually.

2) Even liberalize the island ‘s tax exemption and open the upper limit of the total scale of the benchmark Hong Kong and Hainan ‘s tourism retail market (expected benchmark 70 billion + vs. outlying island tax-free revenue volume of about 13 billion in 2019), which will also have a boost for China TravelEffect, based on its first-mover advantage and its accumulated procurement and resource advantages in recent years, it is not a problem to obtain a certain market share, and the maximum size of China Travel in the Hainan market will also be opened.

The relaxation of outlying island tax-exemption permits is possible, but if the relaxation is expected to have limited impact on China National Travel Service.

In the short to medium term, it is possible to relax the tax exemption permits for outlying islands, but Hainan ‘s best location has already been tax exempted by China. At present, the intervention of domestic tax-exempt business is far behind in terms of investment, procurement and operation capabilities.The results of the separate operations in Sanya and Haikou markets can be used as a reference.

In addition, while it is possible to release the island’s tax-free permit, the policy also has breakthrough constraints in terms of shopping quotas and starting points for postal tax.The possibility of impact is limited.

Risk factors: Slower-than-expected increase in gross profit margin; lower-than-expected tax exemption policy and airport bidding; lower-than-expected Haitang Bay project operation; risks of slower-than-expected progress in state-owned enterprise reform.

Investment suggestion: We believe the company expects a weak trend in the near future, mainly because of doubts about the impact of changes to the Hainan outlying tax exemption policy and subsequent island-wide tax exemption on China Travel, which has brought short-term emotional responses.

We believe that a policy game will exist, local governments will promote market liberalization, and the island ‘s tax exemption is in line with Hainan ‘s positioning, but one is that it will take a long time, and the other is that if it tries to succeed, China Travel will actually be the beneficiary.

The short-term cumulative fluctuations may bring long-term allocations. We recommend that you pay attention.

In the long run, China Exemption benefits from the opening of the tax-free market space under the background of attracting consumption and replacement. Currently, the profit forecast still contains potential increased flexibility. Contingent changes in Hainan’s policies will not constitute a substantial impact. The company is still worthy of configuration.Steady growth varieties, maintaining the company’s EPS forecast for 19-21 is 2.



RMB 74 and “Buy” rating.

Regulators come out from time to time to say that deregulation should become a new direction for A-share reform

Regulators come out from time to time to say that deregulation should become a new direction for A-share reform
Deregulation should become the new direction of A-share reform. The A-share market has continued to slump, with turnover and indexes hitting new lows in recent years.In the meantime, in order to promote the stable and healthy development of the capital market, the regulators from time to time uttered shouts and successively introduced reforms.  On January 12, Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, spoke at the China Capital Market Forum, stating that the daily limit on the first day of new shares is very unreasonable and restricts transactions and should be cancelled.  This policy originated from the reform of the new share issuance system implemented on January 1, 2014. At that time, in order to solve the three high issues of “high issue price, high price-earnings ratio, and super fundraising” of the new shares issue and the “stir-fry” phenomenon on the first day of listing,The 23-fold price-earnings ratio invisible red line and first-day daily limit for new shares is set, that is, 20% of the auction price on the first day of listing of new shares, and the upper limit of 20% after the opening, so the maximum increase is 44% of the issue price.  From the data of recent years, after the implementation of the policy, the phenomenon of the three highs has basically disappeared, but the “stir fry” of listed new shares has continued to increase.Statistics show that in the next few years, the average number of new stocks listed on the stock market has risen by about 10 stops. “New” appears to be a risk-free “money pick-up”. The so-called new funds also appeared in the war market.In fact, it is equivalent to turning over-raised funds of military listed companies into gains for newcomers.  Too many administrative interventions have always made financial supervision, including internal supervision of the A-share market, controversial, and it is easy to overlap the conflict of “dealing once, letting go”.Therefore, there are often “policy bottoms” and “market bottoms” in the downturn of the stock market. However, for a long time, there have been opinions that chaos should be dealt with more frequently, and there is also a lack of compliance with market laws and self-healing functions.  However, from the previous actions of the supervisory authorities, reducing administrative intervention and deregulation are expected to become the direction of future reforms.On October 30 last year, the CSRC issued a three-point statement in the intraday, and the second article mentioned: reducing interference in transaction conversion, allowing the market to have clear expectations of regulation, and giving investors a fair trading opportunity; December 20On the day, the State Council’s Financial Stability Development Committee initiated a symposium on capital market reform and development, and once again clearly and resolutely established the principle of marketization to reduce administrative intervention in transactions.  Fang Xinghai also said on the 12th that he would deregulate in the future. In addition to thinking that the daily limit on the first day of new shares should be lifted, he also mentioned the need to further relax stock index futures trading measures.At the same time, it is mentioned that whether the capital market is futures or spot, both the long and short sides need sufficient means. The price is not the final decision of the regulatory authority. There must be various means and tools to allow the market to fully play.Tool of.  There is no doubt that reducing administrative intervention in transactions is in line with the direction of marketization and rule of law. From a mature capital market perspective, it is more a pre-established system than an immediate administrative intervention, so that companies can be listed., Investors have expectations.  Therefore, it is necessary for the A-share market to reduce “nanny-style” supervision and give more play to the market’s ability to regulate itself.In the past, regulators often traded the market, such as restricting institutional purchases or sales, which could easily cause information asymmetry and lead to adverse selection. Therefore, appropriate guidance for reducing the window is required, especially when information is asymmetric.In the future, regulators should be prevented from directly intervening in the market, allowing investors to buy and sell freely in accordance with their own risk appetite and market expectations. The focus of regulation should be to provide investors with more fair trading opportunities and allow investors more opportunities to enter the capital market.Share the dividends brought by economic development.  Of course, reducing intervention does not mean condoning illegal acts. For actions such as sitting on the market or manipulating the market, we need to strengthen supervision after the fact.  It is worth mentioning that when the market gradually entered the downturn in the past, the supervisors accelerated the reform progress.In the second half of last year alone, the supervisory authorities introduced rules including perfecting mergers and acquisitions and reorganization rules, a strict delisting system, strengthening the information disclosure system, effectively protecting investors, and actively cultivating mid-to-long-term investors, and unblocking various asset management products to enter the 北京夜网 capital market.Channel and other policies.  It is foreseeable that when the market makes price discovery possible through a series of institutional arrangements and the market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources, it will surely enable healthy and stable development and maturity.

Anxin Fund Zhang Jing: Looking for good companies with core competitiveness

Anxin Fund Zhang Jing: Looking for good companies with core competitiveness

Anxin Fund Zhang Jing: Looking for a company with core competitiveness ⊙Liu ChangyuanIn the first stage, we will focus on finding structural highlights, and select leading stocks with long-term performance and core industries with core competitiveness for investment.

  Zhang Jing has managed Anxin Flexible Allocation Fund since 2017 and has achieved an annualized return of 12%. The net value has increased by 42% since 2019, ranking the top 4% among similar products.

Regular public reports show that the fund’s heavy warehouse stocks include Wen’s shares, Makihara shares and other pig cycle bull stocks.

This time, Zhang Jing and Chen Zhenyu, the deputy general manager of Anxin Fund, took charge of Anxin’s core competitiveness and flexible allocation of hybrid funds.

Chen Zhenyu, the company’s deputy general manager in charge of investment research, has 25 years of experience in the securities industry. He is good at fundamental value research and gains from market pricing errors. He has extensive experience in grasping the rhythm of bull and bear turnover.

  The reason to choose to issue a new fund at this time is based on the optimistic judgment of the trustworthiness of A-shares’ long-term investment value.

In December last year, Zhang Jing publicly stated that the A-share is estimated to be at the bottom of history, and the time for sowing has come. At the same time, the Anxin Core Competitiveness Fund declared at the same time.

Despite the rapid growth of A shares in the first quarter, Zhang Jing believes that CSI 800’s estimate is still low.

“Even with the most caution, current estimates are in a reasonable state.

After a period of time, there have been more and more stocks with long-term high return potential, and we are full of confidence in the market outlook.

Zhang Jing said.

  Although there are optimistic expectations for the market outlook, Zhang Jing reminded that the general rise in oversold repairs may have ended, and it has now entered the stage of looking for structural bright spots that are beyond expectations.

As the name of the fund, core competitiveness may be a key factor in judging the value of enterprises in the next stage.

  ”The Chinese stock market has never lacked big bull stocks. What is lacking is only vision and courage.

Zhang Jing is quite confident in his stock selection ability.

In his opinion, it is his team’s specialty to find good companies with core competitiveness.

“We are not disturbed by short-term market sentiment.

Buying and holding a good company with a good price, making money is a high 北京夜生活网 probability event.

“So, what is the core competitiveness of an enterprise?

According to Zhang Jing, in the long run, core competitiveness can enable enterprises to maintain long-term competitive advantages and obtain stable excess profits.

To put it simply, core competitiveness is a company’s unique technology or ability that can withstand the test of time and that has the ability to withstand extensibility and is difficult to imitate.

  Chen Zhenyu said that the stock selection strategy of Anxin’s core competitiveness and flexible configuration of hybrid funds can be summarized using the “F + G” model, that is, selecting those companies that have franchise characteristics and long-term growth capabilities. This model andThe core competitiveness is similar.

  Zhang Jing stated that there are three elements of a company’s 武汉夜生活网 core competitiveness, namely industry prospects, business models and competitive advantages.

In the industry, choose industries with broad development space and excellent structure, and it is best to avoid those industries that will be eliminated due to technological progress. In terms of competitive advantage, consumer companies must seize pricing power and manufacturing companies must have customers.Sticky; the business model includes the level of industry entry information and trends, etc. In essence, a good business model can create long-term value for shareholders.

  If you use a financial indicator to observe the three elements of a company’s core competitiveness, it is the return on equity (ROE).

Zhang Jing said that he will focus on finding companies with long-term composite high ROE, while grasping the cycle inflection point of the industry.

  From the perspective of position allocation, Zhang Jing can take pan-consumer long-term bull stocks as the bottom position, and at the same time maneuver the allocation of cycle and technology stocks based on the grasp and judgment of the changes in the prosperity of the leading industry segments.

Zhang Jing introduced that bull stocks that are the bottom positions rarely underestimate the opportunity to buy, and the key to obtaining excess returns also needs to seize the opportunity of good mobile allocation positions.

  However, Chen Zhenyu said that the stock selection of the mobile configuration part is not limited to certain industries. It is more based on fundamental research to select individual stocks. It does not deliberately divide cycles or industries.

  In addition to selecting good companies with core competitiveness, Zhang Jing said that it is also necessary to obtain “good prices” through timing.

“Historically, the A-share market will have a major timing every few years, and it must be grasped from the perspective of risk control.

To grasp the good times, it is necessary for fund managers to carry out long-term follow-up evaluations, changes in market transaction structure and other factors, and we cannot relax our vigilance because of turbulent market sentiment.

China Film (600977): Industry headwinds drag down performance growth Overall operations remain stable

China Film (600977): Industry headwinds drag down performance growth Overall operations remain stable

The first three quarters of 2019’s performance was slightly lower than we expected China Film to announce 1-3Q19 results: operating income 67.

27 ppm, a decrease of 2 per year.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 8.

74 trillion, down 32 a year.

7%, mainly due to the confirmation of the increase in holdings brought by China Film Barco in the same period last year.

5.4 billion investment income; net profit after deducting non-attribution 7.

US $ 8.3 billion, an annual increase of 2.

4%, slightly lower than our expectations.

Development trends The industry as a whole remains sluggish, dragging down revenue growth.

The company recorded revenue of 18 in 3Q19.

8.5 billion, down 18 a year.


We believe the industry downturn is the main reason for the decline in the company’s revenue.

The domestic box office in the third quarter of 19 was 166 overall.

580,000 yuan (including service fee), which decreases by 1 every year.


The box office contraction has put pressure on the company’s film distribution and screening revenue.

At the same time, the film and television production industry was affected by tightening regulations, downstream control prices, and other factors. The number of startup projects has dropped significantly many times, and the speed of cinema expansion has also improved.

We believe that the company’s film and television production and film and television equipment business revenue has therefore been dragged down.

In addition, the company consolidated its shadow barco in 3Q18. According to accounting standards, after the consolidation, the sales revenue of the company’s holding theaters was replaced internally.

We judge that 3Q19’s increase in the percentage of inbound sales in China may be one of the reasons for the decline in revenue.

Costs were properly controlled and overall operations remained sound.

Although the company’s 3Q19 revenue declined, operating costs were effectively controlled, and the 3Q19 gross margin fell by 0.

9ppt to 20.


In terms of expenses, the company’s sales, management and R & D expenses totaled 1 in the third quarter.

65 ppm, a decrease of 8 per year.


Benefiting from this, the company realized deduction of non-attributed net profit1 in 3Q19.

9.7 billion, an 四川耍耍网 annual increase of 23.


The company has the advantages of full industrial chain operation and scale advantages, and it will maintain stable operation during the industry adjustment period.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the company led or participated in the production of 15 movies, and gradually achieved a box office of 60.

3.7 billion, accounting for 22 of the domestic box office.

2%; during the same period, the box office market share of domestic / imported films that the company participated in distributing also reached 38 respectively.

8% and 58.


Looking forward to 2020, the company’s film and television film reserves are abundant, a total of 13 films and more than 30 TV series are steadily advancing.Among them, the company led or participated in the production of the film “Chinese Women’s Volleyball”, “Detective Chinatown 3”, “The Pioneer” is about to land in the 2020 Spring Festival file, the film performance is worth looking forward to.

Earnings Forecasts and Estimates Based on the above analysis, we lower our net profit for 2019/202014.

8% / 11.

8% to 11.

2.8 billion / 12.

1.8 billion.

The current contradiction corresponds to a 23x / 21x price-earnings ratio for 2019/2020.

We maintain our Outperform rating, but as a result of the downward revision of our earnings forecast, we have also cut our target price by 9.

4% to 16.

30 yuan, corresponding to 27 times / 25 times price-earnings ratio in 2019/2020, which is gradually 17 compared to the current one.

2% upside.

Risk regulatory policy adjustments; industry competition intensified; box office missed expectations.