Ten-month A-share transaction breaks through trillions of securities firms and starts restructuring key logic
Original title: Ten-month A-share transactions break through the trillion-dollar brokerage sector and start to re-initialize the key logic Source: Daily Economic News Recently, the market situation has changed and the market turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen has been approaching one billion yuanMark.
As of the close of February 19, the cumulative turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen has reached 1.
04 trillion, this is also the first time in 10 months, the daily turnover of A shares exceeded the trillion mark.
On the same day, the brokerage sector as an indicator of market sentiment also started.
Among the more than 30 brokerage stocks in the two cities, Guojin Securities took the lead in daily limit on the morning of February 19.
In progress, some non-bank analysts believe that China Securities Securities took the lead in the ups and downs because China Securities Securities is the one with the highest proportion of investment banking business among small and medium-sized securities firms, and its brokerage business also has a relatively high proportion.
The implementation of the refinancing policy last weekend was positive for the investment banking business of securities firms, and real-time market sentiment was also continuously catalyzed. Therefore, low-valued small and medium-sized securities firms with a high proportion of investment banking and brokerage business were the first to start.
The transaction volume affects the recent rankings of the brokerage business of brokerage firms in the TMT, agriculture and other industries. As the market visibility indicator of the brokerage firm sector, the recent overall market performance has been relatively weak.
However, the non-silver sector outperformed the market on February 19, especially in the early morning, which once driven the market growth.
Among the more than 30 brokerage stocks in the two cities, Guojin Securities took the lead in daily limit.
In essence, some small and medium-sized brokers in the brokerage sector have also followed up.
”Daily Economic News” reporter noted that, overall, after the Spring Festival, the market performance of small and medium-sized A-share brokers was stronger than that of large brokers.
For example, as of the close of February 19, China National Securities has gradually increased by 15% since February this year, while the gradual increase of CITIC Securities is only 0.
Some analysts believe that since last year, there have been logical main lines behind the several rounds of market transactions in the securities firm sector.
In the first quarter of last year, the leading investment bank was CITIC Construction Investment, a leading investment bank. Correspondingly, it was at the time of the preparation period before the landing of the science and technology board, and the market paid more attention to the investment and science board business.In January, the larger Nanjing Securities led the brokerage market. Correspondingly, there was an expectation of engaging in industry mergers and acquisitions behind the expectations of building an “aircraft carrier” brokerage.
Regarding the phenomenon of small and medium-sized securities brokers led by China National Securities after the Spring Festival, leading non-bank analysts from securities companies told reporters that China National Securities had the first daily limit on February 19 because China National Securities was an investment bank in small and medium-sized securities companies.The business accounted for the highest proportion. Overall, its brokerage 杭州桑拿网 business accounted for a relatively high proportion.
She believes that the implementation of the refinancing and relaxation policy last weekend is good for brokerages and banks, and at the same time, the recent market sentiment has continued to be catalyzed. Therefore, the undervalued small and medium-sized brokerages, which have a high proportion of brokerage and investment banking business, were the first to start.
According to Choice statistics, the daily turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has recently approached one trillion yuan. On February 18, the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 9999.
4.6 billion, one step away from trillions.
As of the close of February 19, the single-day turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.
This is also the first time in 10 months that the daily turnover of the two cities exceeded the trillion mark.
According to statistics from Choice, since December last year, the turnover of A shares has continued to rise, from a level of about 400 billion a day to the level of more than 900 billion US dollars in a single day, and gradually approaching the high transaction value created in March.point.
The increasing turnover has a positive impact on the brokerage business of brokers.
According to Choice statistics, in the last three quarters of last year, the top brokerages that accounted for the net income of brokerage business fees of A-share brokerage firms include Founder Securities (rights), Guoxin Securities, Hualin Securities, Guojin Securities, China Galaxy, West China SecuritiesWait.
In some cases, brokers’ revenues are mostly low.
The new policy of refinancing is good for investment banking business Last weekend, the implementation of the new policy of refinancing has attracted the attention of investment bankers and non-bank analysts of continuous securities firms.
A few days ago, IFC Securities investment bankers said in a conference call that after the refinancing new policy came into effect, it is expected that this year?
In April, the fixed-increasing projects of A shares will be declared centrally.
The meeting will be held in July, and approvals will be issued in August.
As the company has accumulated a number of customers in the early stage, it is expected that more projects will be reported this year. The major listed securities companies are expected to increase their revenue this year.
For the impact of the new refinancing policy on the performance of securities firms, the non-bank team of CITIC Construction Investment recently made a calculation.
According to statistics, in 2019, the underwriting amount of A-share refinancing (additional issuance + rights issue + preference shares + convertible bonds + exchangeable bonds) was US $ 12791 billion.
Approximately, before the tightening of the previous round of refinancing rules, the underwriting amount of A-share refinancing reached 195.2 billion US dollars in 2016.
Brokerage refinancing underwriting and sponsorship business is expected to have room for delay in recovery.
According to the calculation of the non-banking team of CITIC Construction Investment, it is assumed that the refinancing rates are 0.
8%, 1%, then under the most pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic assumptions, the refinancing business in 2020 can contribute 72 billion, 14.4 billion, and 24 billion yuan of revenue to the securities industry, equivalent to 2% of the operating income of the securities industry in 2019.
Soochow Securities’ non-bank team recently issued an opinion and weighed that the impact of the new refinancing policy on the brokerage industry includes: firstly, the investment bank’s business income is expected to increase significantly, which is the first level of impact; the size of the refinancing is expected to be from the tightening period of 6000100 million scale returns to 1.
About 5 trillion yuan, calculated at a rate of 1%, the revenue increase to investment banking business is about 10 billion yuan.
In addition, due to the impact of the refinancing-related industrial chain, the increase in this part of the income should exceed the first level, including asset management business related to fixed growth, self-employment related to fixed growth strategy, and other M & A and restructuring businesses will usher in recovery.
According to Choice statistics, in the last three quarters of last year, the brokerage firms that accounted for the net income of the business process fees of investment banks in A-share brokerages were CITIC Construction Investment, Dongxing Securities, Tianfeng Securities, National Securities, Nanjing Securities, Great Wall Securities, andEntrepreneurship, Everbright Securities, etc.
Taken together, in the final three quarters of last year, brokerage and investment banking business accounted for more than 10% of A-share securities companies including: CITIC Construction Investment, Haitong Securities, Dongxing Securities, Guoxin Securities, Everbright Securities, Great Wall Securities, Nanjing Securities, TianWind Securities, Guojin Securities, Guoyuan Securities, Soochow Securities, etc.
Among them, small and medium-sized securities firms that estimate relative benefits, such as Guojin Securities and Guoyuan Securities, have performed relatively better recently.
Although the market turnover recently broke through continuously, some investors still have doubts: Is the A-share turnover exceeding the trillion mark? Is this possible?
Does it mean that the market is too much?
In this regard, CICC’s strategy team released a comment saying that after a short-term rapid repair, the market may extend a certain short-term increase in the short-term may need consolidation, and a short-term consolidation is possible.
However, in the medium term, market sentiment is recovering but not redundant. Some funds have been hotly subscribed by the expansion of institutional investor income in recent years, and the market investor structure may be further institutionalized.
CICC’s strategy team based on historical data statistics, the recent 1 trillion single-day transactions, the corresponding single-day turnover rate is 3.
About 2%, slightly higher than the historical average of 2.
The level of 4%, but the historical “danger zone” 5.
There is still a certain distance in the area of 5% or more turnover.
The resumption of market trading volume indicates that market sentiment has improved in the recent epidemic situation, and liquidity is relatively abundant. It is further repaired with the support of various policies.
From a comprehensive assessment and cycle point of view, if the market exceeds the “danger zone”, the midline trend may remain positive.
In addition, the market consolidated on February 19, but Northbound funds continued to have a net inflow of 37.
4.5 billion US dollars, indicating that overseas investors are still buying substantially.