Tasly (600535): The pursuit of healthy growth in operating quality is expected
The event company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report. In 2018, the company realized operating income.
9 billion, 15.
45 ppm and 13.
440,000 yuan, an annual increase of 11.
25% and 2.
13%, realized profit 1.
02 yuan, on the one hand, operating cash flow 0.
99 yuan, slightly lower than our United Nations expectations.
The company’s distribution plan for 2018 is to pay a cash dividend of RMB 3 for every 10 shares.
00 yuan (including tax), a total of 4 cash dividends will be distributed.
5.2 billion (including tax).
In the first quarter of 2019, the company realized operating income. The net profit attributable to the parent and the net profit after deduction were 45.
7.1 billion, 4.
48 ppm and 3.
96 ‰, increasing by 15 each year.
64% and 10.
28%, achieving a profit of 0.
30 yuan, on the one hand, operating cash flow is 0.
17 yuan, in line with our Air Force expectations.
Brief comment on responding to industry changes Q4 Appropriate control of goods, Q1 resumed normal growth 2018 Q4 The company achieved operating income49.
65 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.
66%, net profit attributable to mother 1.
76 trillion, -25 years ago.
99%, net of non-attributed net profit 0.
94 ‰, 53 years average.
Mainly due to the introduction of the auxiliary drug catalogue policy in Q4 countries, large quantities of Chinese medicines were adjusted in the terminal, and the company accordingly controlled the scheduling speed to ensure the quality of operations and maintain healthy and sustainable development.
The fastest growth rate of the company’s non-returned net profit in 2018 is limited to 2.
13%, mainly because: 1) the company invested in a US target company product did not enter the US health insurance as expected, and proceeded for about 1 due to the principle of prudence.
USD 2.5 billion in asset impairment; 2) Gain on disposal of non-current assets of the company1.
Contradictory factors have an impact on the growth rate of the company’s non-attributed net profit.
Assuming that assets are not impaired for disposal, the company’s non-returned net profit growth rate is about 11%.
In the first quarter of 2019, the company realized operating income, net profit attributable to mothers and net profit after deductions were 45.
7.1 billion, 4.
48 ppm and 3.96 ‰, increasing by 15 each year.
64% and 10.
28%, the rapid growth of the beneficiary medicine sector led the company’s Q1 performance to recover to double-digit growth.
Diqing quickly seized the market through imitation evaluation to drive the company’s performance growth in the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The 18-year slight fluctuation Q1 gradually recovered.
The Chinese medicine sector achieved operating income of 53 in 2018.
580,000 yuan, a decrease of 0 every year.
By quarter, Q4 achieved revenue of 16 in the Chinese medicine sector.
14 trillion yuan, a temporary reduction of 17%, mainly due to the introduction of a supplementary drug catalogue policy in Q4 countries. Large-scale Chinese medicines have been adjusted in the terminal. The company has accordingly controlled the delivery speed to ensure business quality and maintain healthy and sustainable development.
The Chinese medicine sector in 2019Q1 achieved operating income11.
37 ppm, an increase of 3 per year.
41%, business conditions have gradually improved.
In 2018, the sales volume of Fufang Danshen Diwan dropped 6.
10%, we believe that the company ‘s traditional Chinese medicine sector will be restored to its past steady growth trend driven by the compound Danshen dripping pills in the future: 1) The compound Danshen dripping pills has been approved by the Army ‘s special medicines to prevent and alleviate acute altitude sickness indications (Military Commission Logistics(Approved by the Ministry of Education), corresponding to about 1 billion market space; 2) Fudan Danshen Diwan Sugar Net’s indication trend was approved in 2019H2. In the future, a strong network of expert channels will be established to facilitate diversified marketing and enter the “China Type 2 Diabetes Guide” (2017Edition) “, the market scale is expected to break through, helping to open up growth space; 3) Fufang Danshen Diwan has established a professional sales team in addition to hospitals in the sales channels, and will continue to strengthen the development of primary medical institutions and retail pharmacies in the futureAnd coverage work to help the sustained growth of Fufang Danshen Dripping Pills; 4) Fufang Danshen Dripping Pills, Yangshengnao Granules, Bishen Yiqi Dropping Pills, and Salvia Polyphenolic Acid for Injection have entered a large number of clinical guidelines for the future growth of academic productsbasis.
In the biopharmaceutical sector, Puyouke continued to double in growth, with continued heavy volume expected.
In 2018, the company’s biopharmaceutical segment achieved revenue2.
28 ppm, up from 129 previously.
In terms of quarters, Q4 achieved revenue of 52 million yuan, which has improved the volume of chain traffic.
The biopharmaceutical sector in Q1 2019 achieved operating income of 62.02 million yuan, an annual increase of 23.
Due to the sharp increase in sales volume and diluted costs, the gross profit margin increased by 23.
83 averages. After the heavy volume continues, the future gross profit margin is expected to increase further.
Tasly Bio will soon go to Hong Kong for listing. Considering the compliance requirements for listing in Hong Kong, the company has adjusted its sales structure and will set up a full-time team in the biopharmaceutical sector. As of the end of 2018, the number of team members has reached nearly 300.
We estimate that Puyouke is expected to achieve a 50% -100% volume growth in 2019: 1) In terms of terminal coverage: The company adopts the “province-territory-county” model to establish a sales network for the promotion of Puyouke products.Within the scope, Puyouke’s product sales network has covered 1,700 hospitals, with 46 offices and nearly 300 sales staff, effectively expanding the coverage of the grassroots market, and promoting rapid volume of products; 2) Academic marketing: the company has cooperated withCardiovascular Health Alliance, China Chest Pain Center, Huayi Xincheng Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Doctor Group, China County Hospital Dean’s Union, Chinese Medical Association Cardiovascular Branch and Chinese Medical Association Cardiovascular Branch and other professional institutions have formed cooperative relationships to strengthen academic marketingIn the first half of the year, Puyouke entered the “Consultation of Chinese Experts on Pre-Hospital Thrombolytic Therapy for ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction”, providing strong support for Puyouke’s academic promotion; 3) Puyouke negotiated to enter the national medical insurance in 2017It has also been recommended by many authoritative guidance documents, and has gained wider application through products.
In the chemical medicine sector, Tiqing seized the market quickly through imitation evaluation and drove the company’s performance growth.
In 2018, the company’s chemical formulation segment achieved revenue of 15%.
One million yuan, an annual increase of 14.
By quarter, Q4 achieved revenue of 4.
21 ppm, an 8% increase over ten years.
Due to the tax reduction in the second quarter of 2018, some dealers had to purchase low-tax products after selling high- and mid-tax products in stock, and Q4 was almost finished.
2019Q1 Chemicals segment achieved operating income4.
34 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.
Temozolomide capsules have entered the national medical insurance directory. Currently competing products listed in China include the original drug Taidao (Mercedon), the generic drug Jiaoning (Shuanglu Pharmaceutical), the injection of temozolomide (Hengrui Pharmaceutical), and Jiangsu Diyi.Companies evaluating the consistency of generic temozolomide capsules (March 2019).
According to the PDB database, the sales amount of temozolomide in the sample hospitals in 2018 was 7.
3 ppm, an increase of 11 years.
5%, of which Jiangsu Diyi has the highest market share, and the sales amount is 3.61 ppm, an increase of 14% in ten years, and a market share of 50%, ranking first, and the import substitution trend has been obvious since 2012.
In terms of dosage forms, injections were approved for listing at the end of 2018 and have not yet formed a market size.
Tiqing went on the market in China in 2004. After 15 years of intensive cultivation, the market share has reached 50%. It has become the first brand of glioma in China. Domestic patients have formed awareness of Tasly products.
Grass-roots medical institutions are the company’s focus on the market. At present, the National Health Commission is promoting policies such as “Gliomas Diagnosis and Treatment Standards”. Gliomas standardized treatment and treatment are gradually extended to prefecture-level cities and counties across the country.The medical institution market is in line with the policy guidance of the national high-quality medical resources sinking to primary care.
At the same time, Tiqing, as the first product of temozolomide capsules that passed the consistency evaluation, has the first-mover advantage.
We believe that through the improvement of the treatment rate of gliomas and the expansion of the grassroots market, the company will use its sales advantages and first-mover advantages to accelerate import substitution and continue to expand the domestic market. It is worth looking forward to healthy growth.
The pharmaceutical business sector has grown steadily. In the future, it will be able to effectively control the scale of receivables and improve the quality of operations.
In 2018, the pharmaceutical business segment achieved revenue of 107.
78 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.
1) Tianshi Marketing realized market-making transactions in April 2018, and entered the NEEQ’s innovative middle-tier direct financing capacity in May. At the same time, it plans to use the funds to issue no more than 1.7 billion in special accounts to support financing by issuing receivables.Efficiency, optimize asset structure, reduce financial risks; 2) the company hopes to cooperate with banks in the future to reduce the size of receivables and improve operating quality.
In terms of continuous R & D expenditure and accelerated R & D of innovative drug pipelines, the company always adheres to the “Four in One” R & D model, closely follows international cutting-edge technologies, and lays out the breadth and depth of product pipelines.
In 2018, the company invested 12 in research and development.
20,000 yuan, accounting for 16% of the pharmaceutical industry’s revenue.
87%, the proportion of R & D investment in industrial income increased by about 5 percentage points, mainly because Tasly Chuangshijie has been merged into the company, while the proportion of the caliber is basically stable. The company’s development position is in the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry companies, which greatly supports the company’s R & D pipeline.growing up.
In 2018, 77 pipeline varieties including modern Chinese medicine, biological medicine and chemical medicine have made many progresses, and more than half of them have entered the clinical stage.
In terms of traditional Chinese medicines, internationally, the compound danshen dripping pill FDA project T89 for the clinical validation test of chronic stable cardiac angina has been approved by the FDA-SPA program, and the company will expedite clinical research in accordance with FDA regulations;Acute Altitude Syndrome (AMS) is licensed by the FDAIND (IND # 136361) and is currently undergoing a phase II clinical study in the California Plateau area, which is progressing smoothly.
Domestically, the indications for sugar network are expected to be approved in the second half of 19th.
Biopharmaceutical varieties: 1) Puyouke scale stroke indications 0-4.
5 hours and 4.
The clinical trials with a time window of 5-6 hours have all entered phase III, and they have been carried out in more than 40 GCP hospitals across the country. At present, the trials are going smoothly, and the test monitoring shows that the safety is good.
In 200 completed phase II clinical trials, both time windows showed significant curative effects, and good results can be achieved in neurological repair, especially 4.
5-6 hours thrombolysis time window, no similar products have been launched on the market; the phase II clinical phase of acute pulmonary embolism is progressing smoothly, and the patient’s clinical manifestation is obvious and safe. 2) Ametizumab (regenerating fully human anti-EGFR recombinant antibody))Complete Phase Ia clinical trials and start Phase Ib clinical trials in July 2018; 3) T101 (hepatitis B adenovirus injection for treatment) completes clinical recruitment and Phase I clinical progress is smooth; 4) T601 (recombinant oncolytic)Vaccinia virus injection) Obtained clinical approval; 5) Two stem cell products MPC-150-IM (FDA clinical phase III) and MPC-25- introduced into the world-renowned stem cell company Mesoblast for the treatment of advanced congestive heart failure and acute myocardial infarctionIC (FDA Clinical Phase II).
In terms of chemical drugs: 1) the company’s three products, gefitinib tablets, tadalafil tablets, and minophosphoric acid tablets, are transformed into production evaluation stages; 2) new class 1 innovative drugs, PARP inhibitors, 2.
Class 2 chemical paclitaxel injection was approved for clinical use; 3) PXT3003 introduced by the company obtained FDA rapid review qualification in February 2019, and was approved to implement clinical trials in China as a priority approval in China; 4) introduced to the United StatesEli Lilly’s GPR40 selective agonist, an innovative drug for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, which has completed Phase I FDA clinical trials and is in the process of developing domestic clinical applications; 5) Introduced the allosteric modification of the calcium-sensing receptor of Japan’s EA Pharmaceuticals innovation research drugModulator AJT240, a global multicenter clinical phase I / II (a) clinical trial has been completed.
The effect of fee control is obvious. The management expense ratio has increased, and cash flow has continued to improve. The remaining financial indicators are basically normal. The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 36 in 2018.
20%, a decline of 0 every year.
09 averages, 33 in 2019Q1.
98%, a decline of 0 every year.
34 averages, basically stable.
Selling expense ratio was 15 in 2018.
51%, a decrease of 0 every year.
24 averages, 2019Q1 is 12.
98%, an increase of 0 every year.
09 hundred basically stable.
The management expense ratio was 3 in 2018.
19%, a decline of 3 per year.
10 averages, 2019Q1 is 3.
08%, a decrease of 3 per year.
With 21 units, the cost control effect is remarkable.The financial expense ratio is basically stable.
Accounts receivable increased by about 1.5 billion annually in 2018, of which about 1 billion came from commerce and 5 billion came from industry. The increase was relatively controllable, and it increased by 13 in Q1 2019.
61%, mainly due to the 都市夜网 increase in the company’s commercial sector; net cash flow from operating activities increased by 287 in 2018.
75%, mainly due to bill maturity collection and bill discounting over the same period last year, increased 70 in the first quarter of 2019.
58%, the continuous improvement effect is obvious.
Other financial indicators are basically normal.
Earnings forecast and investment rating We believe: 1) Tasly Bio spin-off and listing, and gradually realize the reorganization and increase the overall value of the company, thereby transforming the company into an internationally leading biopharmaceutical platform; 2) The company’s investment in Gege Medicine and Tianjing BiodiversityOpportunities for mergers of non-governmental companies will impact the science and technology innovation board and indirectly increase the 成都桑拿网 value of the company; 3) The scale of the innovation research and development pipeline has been reached, and the coordinated development of traditional Chinese medicine chemical drugs and biological drugs has benefited from the gradual improvement of the domestic innovation policy environment, which is expected to accelerate the speed of new drug listing; 4)Yoke is a specific thrombolytic nova, with obvious competitive advantages, and its medical insurance + guidelines promote its continuous and continuous volume; 5) Dandi ‘s progress in sugar network indications and FDA filings is expected to continue to promote steady growth.
We expect the company to achieve operating income of 207 in 2019-2021.
400,000 yuan, 238.
3.5 billion and 272.
9.5 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 17 respectively.
3.8 billion, 19.
5 billion and 21.
97 ppm, an increase of 12 each year.
2% and 12.
7%, equivalent to 1, respectively.
15 yuan / share, 1.
29 yuan / share and 1.
45 yuan / share, the corresponding PE is 19 respectively.
6X and 15.
6x, maintain BUY rating.
Risk analysis Risk of failure in research and development of new drugs; risk of product price reduction, risk of rising prices of raw materials and power costs, risk of investment and merger failure.