Haitong Securities Jiang Chao-Zero interest rate reduction cycle can not be said lightly meaningless

Haitong Securities Jiang Chao: Zero interest rate reduction cycle cannot be said lightly meaningless

Interest rate cuts do not equal the rate cut cycle-how to understand the current monetary policy!

(Haitong Macro Weekly Communication and Thinking No. 346, Jiang Chao, etc.) Jiang Chao, etc. Jiang Chao ‘s macro bond research summary has been short in the past, and the voice of gradual interest rate cuts has been endless, but looking at your loan bill, it feels more like someone elseRate reduction at home.

How to understand this round of interest rate cuts, has China really entered the so-called interest rate cut cycle?

  I. Dazzling interest rate cuts This round of interest rate cuts began on August 17th, and gradually announced the launch of the reform of the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) formation mechanism.

In the end, there were mainly three types of interest rate reductions.

  The first type is the LPR interest rate.

  On August 20, the one-year LPR was announced in advance as 4.

25% more than the Air Force’s 4.

31% down 6bp.

On September 20, the one-year LPR dropped by 5bp to 4.

2%.

On the recent November 20, the LPR was reduced by 5bp to 4 every 1 year.

15%, LPR over 5 years is also down 5bp to 4 for the first time.

8%.

  The second category is the MLF interest rate.

  On November 5th, the one-year MLF operation rate before the initialization was announced in advance of 3.
.

3% return 3.

25%, which is also the first reduction in MLF interest rates since February 2016.

  The third type is the reverse repo rate.

  On November 18, the 7-day reverse repurchase tender announced in the spring dropped 5bp to 2.

5%, this is also the first time since October 15 years of reverse repurchase tenders.

  Second, the actual rate cut is minimal.

  However, from the perspective of the market, the actual rate of interest rate cut is minimal, which is reflected in two aspects: First, the benchmark interest rate is only reduced by 5bp.

  Of the above three interest rates, the MLF and reverse repurchase bid rates are determined by interest rates, and the benchmark interest rate can be considered.

The LPR interest rate is quoted by commercial banks on the basis of MLF. In fact, it is determined by commercial banks and is an indicator of market interest rates.

  Since the establishment of the one-year MLF in early 2016, the trend has been basically the same as that of the simultaneous reverse repurchase bidding, and the adjustment range for each change is exactly the same.

In the end, both the MLF and reverse repurchase rates were only reduced by 5bp, which indicates that the benchmark interest rate was only reduced by 5bp in the current round.

  Therefore, the three interest rate cuts since November are actually one thing.

First, the MLF interest rate was reduced by 5bp, and then the reverse repurchase bidding followed by a 5bp reduction, and then the LPR interest rate was reduced by 5bp following the MLF.

  As a result, lending rates have barely fallen.

  Initially disclosed in the third quarter cargo policy report, after the LPR reform was launched in August, the ratio of loans with interest rates higher than LPR in September was 83.

05%, compared with 84 in August.

13% slightly down.

  However, the budget announced in advance that the average interest rate for general loans in September will increase to 5.

96%, an increase of 0 from June.

02%.

That is to say, even in September after the previous LPR reform was initiated, the bank’s actual lending rate fell.
  In October, the LPR interest rate remained unchanged. In November, the LPR interest rate was reduced by 5bp following the benchmark interest rate. As a result, the latest general bank loan rates may have been replaced.
The level of 91%, which was about June, has only dropped by 3bp.

  The interest rate for residents’ loans is mainly the mortgage rate, and the average mortgage rate at the end of June was 5.

53%, rose to 5 in September.

55%.

The latest mortgage interest rate linked to 5-year LPR was also reduced by 5bp in November, so the latest mortgage interest rate linked to about 5.

5%.

  Suppose you took a 20-year principal and interest-based home loan for 20 years in June.
.

With a 53% mortgage interest rate, a monthly repayment of 6,986 yuan is required.

And follow the latest 5.

The 5% mortgage interest rate requires a monthly repayment of 6,879 yuan, saving about 17 yuan before, and the decline is very limited.

  Third, monetary policy will not be tightened. Since the rate of interest rate reduction is so limited, why do you gradually lower it?

  In our opinion, the main message passed this time by the gradual and modest rate cut is that monetary policy will not be tightened, thereby stabilizing income expectations and preventing upward interest rates from hurting the economy by mistake.

  Inflation triggered austerity expectations.

  After August this year, affected by the hog epidemic, the price of pigs suddenly accelerated to increase, and the chain growth rate for the third consecutive month was around 20%.

Due to the surge in pig prices, the CPI reached the policy target of 3% in September and further rose to 3 in October.

8%.

  The rise in inflation expectations has triggered the gains from tightening monetary policy, which is reflected in the bond market. The 10-year government bond yield has gradually rebounded, rising from the lowest 3% in mid August to 3 at the end of September.

3%.

  And historical experience shows that the national debt interest rate is a leading indicator of loan interest rates. If the national debt interest rate continues to rise, then the loan interest rate will often rise afterwards.

  The economic downturn still needs to be loose.

  However, the budget and the current economic downturn are still under pressure and still need the support of loose monetary policy.

  The GDP growth rate in the third quarter fell by 6%, hitting a new low level for nearly 30 years, and was already lower than the quarterly lows during the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the global financial crisis in 2008.

The industrial growth rate in October replaced 4.

7%, only higher than 4 in August.

4%, the second lowest value of the year. From the perspective of the three major needs, only the decline in exports in October improved slightly, and the rapid change in consumer investment growth means further downward pressure on the economy in the short term.

  In this context, if the expected upward trend is allowed to push up the interest rate level, considering that the gradual upward trend is dominated by pig prices, the structural monetary tightening will indeed hurt the economy by mistake.

In fact, a slight signal of interest rate reduction has released a clear signal that monetary policy will not be tightened due to the surge in pig prices, which can stabilize market expectations and prevent a significant rise in interest rates.

  After the policy rate was cut in November, the latest 10-year Treasury rate has fallen back to 3.

About 2%, which means that the expectations of rising interest rates have been effectively distorted, which also helps the economy to stabilize at a low level.

  Fourth, we cannot lightly reduce the interest rate cut cycle, but in addition, we think that the short-term interest rate cut has limited space, and it is by no means entered into the interest rate cut cycle. The reason is: First of all, the real interest rate reduction is not 5bp.

  Internationally, the rate of interest rate reduction is usually 25bp. For example, the US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times this year and reduced the interest rate by 75bp.

In China, the amplitude of the national budget benchmark after 2010 is also 25bp at regular intervals, while the smaller downward adjustments are 18bp and 27bp.

  It can be seen that a 5bp interest rate cut is far lower than the international and historical averages, and its role is to prevent interest rates from rising rather than to guide interest rate growth to decline.

  In practice, 淡水桑拿网 prevent potential divergence.

  In the quarterly third quarter cargo administration report, it was clearly stated that future expenditure needs are wary of expected expected divergence.

  Furthermore, we also discussed the price trend in a column, arguing that there is no basis for continued growth or deflation.

It is expected that after 2020, the structural mutations caused by the reduction of pig price growth will gradually fade away, and after the base effect has subsided, PPI will lead to bottoming out and the gap between CPI and PPI will narrow.

  In this context, if monetary policy is significantly relaxed and the PPI is bottomed out, it may stimulate growth to spread from pig prices to other areas.
Therefore, to prevent the unexpected divergence, it is still necessary to maintain a sound monetary policy, which also means that there is limited room for interest rate cuts.

  Again, avoid stimulating real estate.
  In the Politburo meeting in July, it was clearly stated that “the substance should not be used as a means of short-term economic stimulus”, and at the same time, this reference was echoed in the third quarter monetary policy report.

  According to the latest loan interest rate mechanism, the mortgage interest rate is linked to the 5-year LPR, which is jointly determined by the MLF interest rate and the bank plus points.

  Assuming that the future really enters the interest rate reduction cycle, that is, the continuous reduction of the MLF bidding interest rate, it will cause the mortgage interest rate to continue to decrease, and the result will be real estate restimulation, in case the real estate bubble resurrects, it is definitely worth the money.

  Finally, we must stick to structural deleveraging.

  At the meeting of the Central Committee of Finance and Economics in early April 18, “structural deleveraging” was first proposed.

The 19-year government work report also made “adhering to structural deleveraging” an important goal.

And in the monetary policy report in the third quarter of the beginning of the year, it was also necessary to “orderly advance structural deleveraging.”

  In the past two years, thanks to policies such as new asset management regulations, we have successfully stabilized China’s debt leverage.

Based on the revised 18-year GDP data, we estimate that the macro-leverage arrangement at the end of 18 years was 239%, which has been stable at this level for six consecutive quarters.

  However, since entering 2019, the macro leverage has shown a slight upward trend. We estimate that the macro leverage at the end of the third quarter will rise to 245%.

The reason is that the current social financing budget surplus is growing at 10.

7%, still higher than 7.

9% GDP nominal growth rate.

If at this time we adopt a reasonable and substantive interest rate cut policy to stimulate monetary financing to continue to rise, then it may cause China’s macro leverage to change again.

  Therefore, no matter from the perspective of preventing the divergence of expectations, nor from stimulating real estate and structural deleveraging, China does not support China’s future interest rate cut cycle.

  Fifth, cherish normal monetary policy and even future growth in order to increase the intensity of countercyclical adjustments and continue to reduce interest rates. We believe that there are at most a few other 5bps. The overall interest rate cut is very limited.Negative interest rates are meaningless.

  First of all, if the economy can be improved by a major interest rate cut, Japan and the euro area, which currently implement negative interest rates, should be the best economies.

  Therefore, the truth is that long-term economic growth has nothing to do with currency, and developing the economy with money and debt will only lead to short-term bubbles and long-term depression.

  Interest rates match economic growth.

  From a macro perspective, the level of interest rates actually matches the level of economic growth.

The US Treasury bond rate is around 2%, higher than the negative interest rates in Japan and the Eurozone, because the US has a higher level of economic growth.

  Usually, the nominal growth rate of a country ‘s GDP determines the upper limit of corporate loan interest rates. After deducting credit spreads, it is the level of national debt interest rates, and the gradual benchmark interest rate is similar to short-term national debt interest rates.

  For example, the current nominal growth rate of the United States’ GDP is about 4-5 percent, and its bank’s best lending rate is 4.

75%, roughly the same as the nominal GDP growth rate.

  Its 1-year Treasury bond rate is 1.

56%, the interest rate difference with the loan rate is 300bp.

The benchmark benchmark interest rate range is 1.

5-1.

75%, close to the one-year Treasury rate.

  And follow China currently 7.

The nominal growth rate of 9% of GDP, the average average interest rate of the latest bank loans is 5.

96%, the loan interest rate is still much lower than the nominal growth rate of GDP, indicating that in proportion to economic growth, the current loan interest rate is not particularly high.

The interest rate on China’s one-year government bonds is currently 2.

64%, the interest rate spread is about 300bp, similar to the United States.

The overall 7-day reverse repo bidding interest rate is currently maintained at 2.

About 5% is actually not high.

  Financing is not expensive but difficult.

  The main problem of the current Chinese economy is not expensive financing, and it is difficult to substitute financing.
According to preliminary published data, before 2013, private enterprises accounted for as much as 60% of the increase in loans, but after 2014 it fell to only 20%.

  From the perspective of the bond market, private enterprises accounted for about 20% of the net financing of credit bonds in 15-17, and in 18 years the net financing of credit bonds of private enterprises was close to zero, until November 19300 billion.
  Why is private enterprise financing difficult?

The key is that the financial system is dominated by state-owned enterprises, so credit is naturally expected to become an enterprise.

The key to breaking the situation is to further break through the monopoly of the financial industry.

Recently, the State Council announced that allowing foreign investors to set up holding or even wholly-owned banks, insurance, securities firms and funds in China is actually breaking the monopoly of the financial industry, prompting increased competition in the financial industry and improving the future financing status of private enterprises.

  Therefore, in terms of monetary policy, what China currently needs is not absolute monetary policy. Rather, it should further intensify reform and opening up, and unblock alternative mechanisms for monetary policy.

  In summary, we believe that in the face of structural inflation and downward economic pressure at the same time, the change of choice will slightly reduce the policy interest rate. The message is that monetary policy will not tighten and hurt the economy by mistake, but it also means that currencyThe policy will not be greatly relaxed, and there is no so-called rate cut cycle.

  I. Economy: Demand is basically stable 1) Offline real estate is stable.

In the first 21 days of November, real estate sales growth in 4 first-tier cities rose 26%, and real estate sales growth in 11 second-tier cities fell 4%.

Real estate sales in 18 third- and fourth-tier cities increased by more than 8%.

4%, the growth rate of real estate sales has improved since November compared with October, but real estate sales in third and fourth tier cities are still stable.

  2) The decline in cars narrowed.

In the first 17 days of November, the passenger car retail and wholesale growth rates of the CUP were -13% and -11%, respectively. Although the car sales in the previous two weeks were weak, they have improved significantly in the first week.

  3) The growth rate of power generation is stable.

In the first 22 days of November, the coal consumption of the six major power plants increased by more than 15%.

6%, among which the growth rate of coal consumption for power generation has rebounded since mid-late, which means that the growth rate of power generation since November is still stable.

  Second, prices: pig prices fell significantly 1) pig prices fell significantly.

Last week pork prices fell by 6 from the previous month.

9%, egg, poultry, and vegetable prices also fell, and food prices overall fell2.

8%.

  2) CPI continues to rise.

Pig prices have fallen since November, but the overall proportion of pig prices in November has been increasing for 10 months.

By the end of November, the price of edible agricultural products of the Ministry of Commerce increased by 4 from the previous month.

3%, CPI food prices are expected to increase by 2 in November.

5%, the CPI rose to 4 in November.

6%.

  3) PPI decline narrowed.

Since November, coal prices have fallen, steel prices have rebounded, and oil prices have risen slightly.

In the end, the price of raw materials for port futures in November will decrease by 0.

1%. It is predicted that the PPI in November will remain flat month-on-month, and the decline in PPI will narrow to 1.
.

4%.

  4) Expected expected improvement.

Since November, pig prices have dropped significantly, which means that short-term improvements are expected. Although CPI will still rise significantly in November, the CPI will rise from December to fall.

In terms of PPI, the rise in steel and oil prices since November, coupled with the apparent drop in PPI at the end of last year, is about to disappear, and the PPI tends to bottom out and rise from negative to positive early next year.

  Third, liquidity: the repurchase rate is reduced 1) the currency interest rate has fallen.

Currency interest rates fell last week, with the average R007 falling by 14bp to 2.

66%, mean R001 is down 34bp to 2.

2%.
DR007 downstream from 17bp to 2.

49%, DR001 down 33bp to 2.

14%.
  2) The budget continues to be released.

Last week, there were no funds in the open market, and the transition operation invested 300 billion yuan in reverse repurchase. This foreign bank invested 50 billion yuan in cash, totaling 350 billion yuan.

  3) The exchange rate depreciated slightly.

Last week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar declined slightly, and both the onshore and offshore yuan dropped to 7.

04.

  4) The repo rate is reduced.

Last week’s budget was cut by 7 days for reverse repurchase bids of 5bp to 2.

5%, which is consistent with the reduction in the short-term debt instrument operating interest rate, helps reduce the marginal cost of financial institutions, promotes the reduction of LPR quotations and the actual corporate interest rate, and is intended to deal with short-term economic pressure and strengthen countercyclical adjustments.

However, the interest rate is only reduced by 5bp, which no longer reduces the interest rate sufficiently, reflecting the fine-tuning and precise thinking.

The fiscal policy reports of various countries have proposed to prevent the spread of expected expectations. Considering the continued high in the next half year, there is limited space for gradually increasing and reducing interest rates, and monetary policy will remain stable as a whole.

  4. Policy: Do not engage in flood irrigation 1) Do not engage in flood irrigation.

When meeting with reporters, Premier Li Keqiang and principals of major international economic and financial institutions stated that China is confident of achieving the economic and social development goals set at the initial stage and keeping economic operations in a reasonable range.

It will continue to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies and make good use of counter-cyclical adjustment tools.

No matter how the outside changes, China will unswervingly implement a higher level of opening up.

We will implement precise policies, grasp the policies and regulations on tax and fee reduction, and insist on refraining from “irrigated floods”.

  2) Improve the socialist economy.

Article by the Vice Premier of the State Council Liu He Renmin Ribao: Adhere to and improve the basic socialist economic system, adhere to and improve the public ownership as the main body, and jointly develop the economy of various forms of ownership to stimulate the vitality of various market entities;Market system.

  3) Coping with population aging.

The State Council issued the “National Medium- and Long-Term Plan for Actively Coping with Population Aging”, deploying specific tasks for population aging in five aspects, including consolidating social wealth reserves, improving effective supply of measures, building a system for supplying old services and products, and strengthening scientific and technological innovation capabilities.

The “Planning” proposes to select regions with characteristics and expectations for comprehensive innovation pilots in response to population aging.

  V. Overseas: The Fed announced the minutes of its October meeting, and the Eurozone ‘s PMI rose in November 1) The Fed announced the minutes of its October meeting.

Last Wednesday, the Fed announced the minutes of the October FOMC meeting. Most members believe that after the interest rate cut in October, there is no need to further cut interest rates in the short term. Unless there is a major change in the economy, the current interest rate is appropriate. All members do not agree to implement negative interest rates.An effective tool to boost the US economy, most members also discussed standing repurchase facilities.

  2) The Federal Reserve has no plan to issue digital currencies.

Last Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell continued that the Fed did not issue a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) plan and necessary, but could only use “small-scale research-based technology experiments” to better understand the technologies that can be used to support CBDC, while paying close attentionAdvances in global digital currencies.

  3) The Eurozone ‘s manufacturing PMI picked up in November.

On Friday, the euro zone announced an initial manufacturing PMI of 46 in November.

6, compared with the previous value of 45.

9 rebounded, Germany, France and manufacturing PMI in November were 43.

8, 51.

6, also higher than the previous value.

On the same day, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the euro area needs to be weak and weak, and the monetary policy evaluation will begin in the near future.

  4) Japan’s export decline has expanded.

On Wednesday, Japan announced that it exported -9 twice in October.

2%, previous value -5.

2%, the previous decline was the largest in 3 years.

Among them, exports to the United States are reduced by 11 every year.

4%, exports to Asia decreased by 11 in ten years.
2%, the decline in emissions of US autos, aircraft engines and the substitution of plastics in China is the main drag.

Torch Electronics (603678) Semi-annual Report Review: Military Products Revenue Increases Significantly, Prospects for Ceramic Materials Expected

Torch Electronics (603678) Semi-annual Report Review: Military Products Revenue Increases Significantly, Prospects for Ceramic Materials Expected

Event: The company released the semi-annual report for 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 106,061 from January to June 2019.

420,000 yuan, an increase of 12 over the same period last year.

70%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 21,330.

250,000 yuan, an increase of 21 over the same period last year.

twenty two%.

The self-produced business continued to improve, and military revenue increased significantly.

According to the reported amount, the company’s self-produced business realized operating income of 39,354.

240,000 yuan, continued to maintain steady growth.

Of this total, military revenue was 27,074.

290,000 yuan, a substantial increase of 49 over the same period last year.

59%; income from civilian products was 12,279.

950,000 yuan, an increase of 19 over the same period last year.

25%.

After the company acquired and consolidated 60% equity of Guangzhou Tianji Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. in 2018, it achieved operating income of 3,165 from January to June 2019.

110 thousand yuan, net profit 1,214.

610,000 yuan.

As one of the few domestic companies capable of producing SLC products, Guangzhou Tianji will expand with SLC products as its core in the future, and is committed to building a supplier of military electronics and 5G microwave components with core technology and important influence.

We believe that the company’s complementary advantages through the integration of resources will produce good synergies.

Ceramic materials have a bright future, and share repurchases show confidence.

The company has mastered a series of proprietary technologies for the industrialization of “advanced special ceramic materials” and the preparation of PCS through a technology exclusive license.

A wholly-owned subsidiary, Liya New Materials, as the main body for the implementation of the industrialization of CASAS-300 high-performance special ceramic materials, has now completed the capacity construction of three production lines.

The mechanical properties, impact resistance, and oxidation resistance of CASAS-300 high-performance special ceramic materials can meet the requirements of the high-temperature resistant materials, marine corrosion-resistant materials, and automotive industries in the aviation, aerospace, nuclear power, physical and chemical industries. Application prospectsVery broad.

In addition, the company announced that it will repurchase 10% of the net profit of the shareholders of the listed company and not exceed 30 million yuan for the repurchase of company shares for three consecutive years (2018-2020).It reflects the confidence in the company’s future development and 杭州桑拿 the recognition of its intrinsic value.

Profit forecast and investment grade: The company’s net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 4.

3 billion, 5.

2.5 billion, 6.

20 ppm, EPS is 0.

95 yuan, 1.

16 yuan, 1.

37 yuan, corresponding to PE is 24 times, 19 times, 16 times, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risk warning: the progress of the fundraising investment project is less than expected; the component trading agency business declines.

Chinese Embassy in Philippines Holds Photo Exhibition

Chinese Embassy in Philippines Holds Photo Exhibition
People’s Daily Bangkok, February 27th (Reporter Zhao Yipu) On the 27th, the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines held a photo exhibition to combat the new crown pneumonia epidemic.Philippine 北京spa会所 Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Senior Official of ASEAN Affairs Manaro, 9 other ASEAN ambassadors to the Philippines, and overseas Chinese representatives from the Philippines attended the exhibition.In the lobby of the first floor of the embassy, metal display stands lined up, displaying 29 selected pictures, with English signing.Pictures are like bookmarks, marking many touching moments in China and China and ASEAN countries fighting the epidemic for more than a month.It is understood that the exhibition is divided into four parts: “the nation as a whole fights the epidemic”, “watch and help each other to overcome the difficulties”, “China and the Philippines help each other together and help each other”, and “all efforts to fight the epidemic and practice diplomacy for the people.”At the photo exhibition site, visitors 杭州夜网论坛 stopped and watched each picture for a long time, admiring the heroic stubbornness and fear of sacrifice of the Chinese people, especially medical workers, and admiring China’s tremendous efforts to prevent the global spread of the new crown pneumonia virus.sacrifice.ASEAN friends said that China’s joint defense and control system is unprecedented in human history, and its determination is admirable.It is because of China’s rapid and feasible measures that the region can achieve the results it is now in responding to the epidemic.Overseas Chinese representatives have expressed their support for China’s fight against the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and are willing to do their best to help the government and people of the motherland (country) to overcome the epidemic as soon as possible.It is believed that under the strong leadership of President Xi Jinping and the extensive support of the international community, the Chinese government and people will eventually overcome the epidemic and restore normal working and life order at an early date.

Chinese Film (600977): 2018 Annual Report Results Slightly Exceed Expected Results Growth Welcome Window

Chinese Film (600977): 2018 Annual Report Results Slightly Exceed Expected Results Growth Welcome Window

The company released its 2018 annual report.

The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved 90 operating income.

380,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.

55%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

95 ppm, an increase of 54 in ten years.

85%, slightly higher than our previous 14.

01 million USD forecast; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies

90 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

99%; basic profit return is 0.

80 yuan, it is planned to distribute cash 2 for every 10 shares.

81 yuan (including tax).

The box office performance of imported films rebounded markedly, and continued to be optimistic about the company’s issuing business in 19 years.

In the first quarter of 2019, the total box office nationwide was 18.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 8 per year.

0%, the box office is 17.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 9 per year.

3%.

In terms of breakthroughs, domestic headline films continued to maintain eye-catching performance, while the overall box office of imported films rebounded significantly.

A total of 73 domestic films were released in the first quarter, achieving a box office of 1.25 million yuan, at regular intervals17.

0%, but the total box office of the first three films at the box office accounted for 46% of the total box office in the first quarter.

1%, a year to raise 0.

5%; 23 imported films were released in the first quarter, achieving a box office of 62 trillion US dollars, an increase of 17 in ten years.

6%, an increase of 7% of the total box office.

2% reached 33.

1%.

The second quarter is an intensive period for the release of imported films, and the advance screening of Fulian 4 overlaps with the May Day holiday. This has set a good foundation for the film to break through the box office record of imported film history in China, and also has continued to increase in the first quarter.Fast performance started well (the box office in the second quarter of 2018 was 11 billion, of which the box office of imported movies was 7.3 billion).

Looking ahead, we believe that the distribution of important IP commercials in Hollywood in 19 years is evenly distributed and more reasonable, especially the summer season’s recordable reserves are more abundant than in 18 years, and we tend to restart the 17-year import blockbuster boom.

The company relies on the “one import, wholesale distribution” policy to maintain a stable market share in the imported film distribution market. The high growth performance of the box office of imported films attempts to bring direct and considerable revenue to the company’s distribution business.

The expansion of the screen opens up new space for the projection equipment market and continues to be optimistic about the company’s film and television service business.

The report summarizes that the company ‘s wholly-owned subsidiary, China Film Equipment, acquired 9% of China Film Barco ‘s shareholding, which has increased the scope of some consolidated companies ‘consolidated statements and deepened the company ‘s layout in the projection equipment industry chain.

With the gradual landing of the “Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Cinemas to Promote the Prosperity and Development of the Film Market” of the National Film Bureau, the current stock market of 60,000 screens and the incremental market 天津夜网 of 20,000 screens in the next two years80,000 yuan), will continue to support the company to grow bigger and stronger film and television service business.

We believe that the company’s business will continue to maintain a high growth rate of more than 20%, and the gross profit margin of the business is expected to continue to increase, contributing to further strengthening the company’s industry leader.

Investment Advice.

Taking into account the continued good performance of imported films in the first half of the year, we slightly raised the company’s profit forecast from 0 to EPS in 2019-2020.

83, 0.

86 yuan increased to 0.

84, 0.

87 yuan, an additional EPS forecast for 2021 is 0.

92 yuan, corresponding PE is 22, 21 and 20 times.

Our reasonable price range for 2019 is from 19.09-23.

24 yuan increased to 19.

32-23.

52 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” 都市夜网 level.

risk warning.

Box office performance was less than expected; regulatory and import film policy risks; film and television investment risks.

Oupai Home (603833): Q1 Exceeds Expectations, Multi-category Continues to Boost Industry Leadership

Oupai Home (603833): Q1 Exceeds Expectations, Multi-category Continues to Boost Industry Leadership

Event On the evening of April 29, 2019, Oupai Household released the first quarter report of 2019.

The company’s operating income for the first quarter of 201922.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 15 in ten years.

57%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is zero.

92 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

14%; net non-recurring profit or loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 0.

76 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.

96%.

Our analysis and judgments show rapid growth in revenue and profits, and performance rebounded more than expected. In general, the company achieved rapid growth in revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2019, and the performance rebounded beyond expectations.

The income side grows by 15 per year.

57%, the company’s strong brand awareness and influence, sales channel construction and marketing activities are the driving force behind the growth of revenue.

According to our calculations, the company’s cabinet revenue in the first quarter was single digits. The growth rate of the wardrobe was about 25%, the bathroom continued to grow by 50% +, and the growth rate of wooden doors was about 25%.

The company’s profit side grows faster than its income side, and net profit attributable to its mother grows by 25 per year.

14%, the faster growth is initially due to the company’s revenue growth, improvement in gross profit margin, and government subsidies, etc. leading to other income and operating income increase.

The company’s non-net profit growth is rapid but slower than the return to mother’s profit, increasing by 20 per year.

96%, mainly due to the increase in other income and non-operating income.

The gross profit margin has increased. During the period, the expense ratio has steadily increased slightly. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin in the first quarter of 2019 was 34.

22%, compared with 33 in the same period in 2018.

91% increased by 0.

31 points.

Net profit margin supplement for the first quarter of 20194.

18%, compared with 3.
.

86% increase to 0.

32pct.

Expenses for the company’s period in the first quarter of 201929.

05%, compared with 29 in the same period in 2018.

00% increase by 0.

05pct, the first is the rise in financial expense ratio.

Of which selling expenses are 13.

80%, compared with 14 in the same period in 2018.

05% down 0.

25 points; overhead costs 9.

53%, compared with 9 of the same period in 2018.

52% was basically the same; R & D expenditure was 5.

43%, compared to 5 in the same period in 2018.

57% rose by 0.

15pct; financial expenses 0.
29%, -0 from the same period in 2018.
14% rose to 0.

44pct, the increase in the financial expense ratio was mainly due to the decrease in interest income during the reporting period and the increase in interest expenses and handling fees.

Accounts receivable turnover rate decreased, operating, and financing cash flow improved significantly in the first quarter of 2019.

20 ppm, up from 2 at the end of 2018.

7.8 billion increased by 50.

88%, compared with 1 in the first quarter of 2018.

4.2 billion increased by 195.

96%, the increase in accounts receivable was due to the increase in engineering business volume.

Accounts receivable turnover high pressure2.

28, compared with 2 in the same period in 2018.

40 is reduced by 0.

12.

The reporting company’s operations have significantly improved cash flow from investment activities and reduced financing cash flow.

The net cash flow generated by the company’s operating activities in the first quarter of 2019 was -1.

45 ppm, an increase of 61 in ten years.

54%, the first is the company’s sales of goods, the cash received from providing labor services increased over the same period last year.

Net cash flow from investing activities was -13.

36 ppm, a reduction of 2 per year.

39 ppm, mainly due to the increase in cash paid for investment during the reporting period; net cash flow from financing activities was 2.

450,000 yuan, an increase of 296 in ten years.

45%, the first is that the cash received from borrowings increased from the previous period.

Convertible corporate bonds approved, production bases built to increase productivity On January 14, 2019, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the application of Oupai Household to issue A-share convertible corporate bonds publicly, and the company’s face value could be significantly increased.

US $ 9.5 billion convertible corporate bonds with a term of 6 years. The funds raised will be used to invest in the construction of the Qingyuan Production Base (Phase 2) construction project, the Wuxi Production Base (Phase 2) construction project and the Chengdu Oupai Smart Home Construction Project.

The three projects to be raised will be completed or expanded in the company’s production bases in South China, East China and Southwest China. The completion of the project will improve the layout of the production area to meet the order requirements of the regional sales market, effectively reduce delivery time, provide sales efficiency, and realize orders.The rapid and efficient delivery of the company will increase the price competitiveness of the company’s products to a certain extent. At the same time, the project will further expand the company’s production capacity and production scale, increase the company’s market share, and realize an intelligent and flexible production system and a nationwide production strategy layout.The layout of production bases will help meet the needs of consumers in different regions, and better adjust the 武汉桑拿 local marketing network sales strategy and product promotion categories.

Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s operating income from 2019 to 2020 to be 134.

7.2 billion and 154.

90 ‰, increasing by 17 each year.

05% and 14.

98%; net profit attributable to mothers is 19.

17 ppm and 23.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 21 a year.

98% and 20.

03%, corresponding P / E is 25.

50x and 21.

24x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk factors: Declining real estate sales, rising raw material costs, and intensifying industry competition

Seeing through telecommunications scams, a good year

Seeing through telecommunications scams, a good year
Editor’s note: Every New Year, it is the most rampant time for telecommunication network fraud, which is inevitable.Many people do not have a strong sense of fraud prevention, and after encountering fraud and fraud, they cannot take corrective measures to stop loss in a timely manner.Based on this, the Beijing Haidian District Public Security Bureau selects typical cases from the perspective of “the five most”, reminding everyone to always keep in mind the prevention of telecommunications network fraud.  Part-time brushing orders, earning small compensation and large network recruitment, brushing orders, the largest number of cases.This type of deception is mainly young people who are new to the workplace under the age of 30, mainly school students, followed by low- and middle-income people, and full-time moms.Scammers publish a large number of part-time job advertisements through the Internet. In the initial stage, they will pay the victim a small amount of compensation according to the contract, and replace the alert. After that, they will refuse to pay the principal and remuneration for a number of reasons, such as the amount of unfinished tasks and network failures.People continue to pay orders, occupying more principal.  Precautionary suggestions: All fraudsters such as “high commission” and “advance payment” are scammers; all work such as ordering, crediting, and crediting are illegal, and even easy to be deceived, and may also bear corresponding responsibilities.Don’t trust the WeChat group, QQ group, job postings posted on the forum, go to the recruitment site to find part-time jobs.  The caller’s routine of the “public inspection law” is impersonated as the “public inspection law”, which involves the largest amount of cases and the deepest tactics.This type of deception is mainly freelance young women under 30 years old, mainly retired women.The scammer asks the victim to provide funds for account verification or transfer the funds to a “secure account” for imposing public security, a procuratorate or a judge, etc., on the grounds of suspected various illegal crimes (phone arrears, express parcels, bank cards, mobile phones, etc.).”” And will even make fake “wanting orders” to stop the victims.After gaining the trust of the victim, ask them to click or download software applications such as fake “public security system”.In this case, the so-called random code is the transfer amount, and the number on the U shield is actually a dynamic password.Sometimes, the suspects also used the procedure of downloading the case to let the victim download the “trojan” to achieve the purpose of remotely controlling the transfer.  Suggestions for prevention: Those who claim to be “public prosecution law” agencies and handle cases by phone, make records, verify funds, and review accounts are scammers; all who claim to be on the phone by the Communications Administration, Telecommunications Administration, and bank staff take the initiative to involve the case.Those who help you transfer to the public security organs are scammers; anyone who asks to transfer funds to a designated account, checks or requests to open online banking, asks for an account number, password, and verification code is a scammer.Do not download software from unknown sources.If you can’t distinguish the authenticity, you need to restart 110 in time to verify.  QQ WeChat transfer, first verify that impersonating the boss to deceive the accountant, the cashier, the most confusing.This type of deception is dominated by SME finance and accounting personnel.Fraudsters add financial staff as friends by impersonating the boss of the company’s WeChat, QQ, etc., imitate the boss’s tone and issue transfer instructions, or pull the financial staff into the so-called “company executive group”.Fraudsters use employees’ awe to their bosses and dare not take the liberty of verifying information with leaders to control financial personnel to deposit money into accounts.  Prevention suggestions: Anyone who finds that QQ or WeChat is stolen should immediately notify relatives, friends, and colleagues to prevent fraud and deceit; verify the confirmation of face-to-face or call-back calls involving fund transfers; do not use WeChat or QQ on the transfer of funds.For handling, financial personnel shall strictly follow the system and working procedures, and shall not operate illegally for special reasons.  Do n’t pay for the loans first to pretend to be an Internet finance company to deceive lenders, and the average age of the victims is the youngest.This type of victim is mainly freelance young men under 30 years old, mainly company employees.Scammers take advantage of young people’s advanced consumption and love to compare and compare features, and release information that can increase credit card limits, cash out, handle large credit cards or large low-interest loans, and use fraudulent methods such as transaction fees, prepaid interest, and margin.  Precautionary advice: Anyone who applies for a loan from a financial institution will not be required to pay any fees in advance; anyone who asks for a bank card number and the password must be rejected on the grounds of transaction flow; all who require advance payment of security deposits, capital costs, bank card activation fees, etc.For scammers.It is not easy to install apps from unknown sources, and the payment password is different from the daily passwords.  Online shopping beware of fake “customer service” pretending to be a customer service to deceive online shoppers, the latest means of committing crimes, the rate of increase.  The method is a combination of impersonation of public security fraud scam and impersonation of customer service online purchase refund fraud scam. The suspect impersonated Taobao customer service, claiming that the victim was mishandled by the staff and asked whether to cancel.After the victim agrees, the suspect will ask the victim to find a quiet environment to talk on the grounds of recording a complaint recording.In order to circumvent the system of preventing the interception 无锡夜网 of telecommunications fraud by public security organs, the suspect will notify the victim, and this operation will receive telephone and text message prompts from the Network Supervision Bureau and the Public Security Bureau regarding the prevention of telecommunications fraud.Subsequently, the suspect instructed the victim to operate according to the instructions. After notifying the victim of the failure, in order to avoid security prompts such as Alipay, the suspect would use the victim to provide incomplete information and request to use WeChat and bank APP transfers.After the victim was brainwashed, the suspect gradually increased the transfer amount and let the victim use the overlapping platform until he emptied all the funds of the victim or came to his senses.  Precautionary advice: Anyone who accepts a call from a customer service agent who needs to renew, repay, or cancel a certain function must log in to the official shopping website in person to check; everything that requires users to provide loan limits, as well as stock, financial management and other information are fraudsScammers: Anyone who asks the victim to speak alone and not give content to family and friends is a scammer.

Bank of Communications Schroder Fund-Short-term sentiment shock is obvious in the second quarter or may face a rebound

Bank of Communications Schroder Fund: Short-term sentiment shock is obvious in the second quarter or may face a rebound

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Original title: Bank of Communications Schroder Fund: At the beginning of the second quarter, a rebound may be encountered. Reporter Huang Huiling, Bank of Communications Schroder Fund believes that the epidemic occurred suddenly, was replaced by transmission, and the overlapping Spring Festival brought uncertainty to the market and short-term emotional shockobvious.

  However, in combination with the experience of economic and market operations during the SARS period in 2003, and intervention measures recognized by the World Health Organization, the scheduling of economic and capital markets will be limited to the first half of 2020, which will directly affect the industry’s main confinement to the tertiary industry.Neutral effects may cause real GDP growth to decline by 2020.

About 5%, the long-term Chinese economy has undergone a fundamental change in the direction of the significant improvement in the quality of economic market development supported by the easing of trade conflicts and the support of manufacturing repair.

  Under this scenario, there is a high probability that the market will be affected by the epidemic at the end of the first quarter, and may rebound in the beginning of the second quarter due to industrial resumption and consumer repair. The market can remain relatively optimistic in the second and third quarters of the middle of the year.Ten years of market conditions are still expected, and active management funds still have long-term investment value in a volatile environment.

  Bank of Communications Schroder expects that consumer demand will be released one month after the epidemic, and consumer demand will increase instead of disappearing; due to the rapid development of online consumption in recent years, demand for e-commerce shopping, online video, and online office has reversedPotential growth.

In order to hedge against the impact of the tertiary industry, the business leasing industry has spontaneously reduced rents and rents, and targeted tax and interest reduction policies have also been attempted to be launched.返回码: 500 网站打不开?重查 Targeted monetary and fiscal policies are promising.

Although the short-term impact of the service industry is significant and the psychological impact is transmitted, the service industry outside the financial sector accounts for a small proportion of A shares or does not constitute an index level risk. Investors are advised to face it calmly.

  Generally speaking, the beginning of the second quarter is an important time for the full resumption of work in the secondary industry and the repair of demand in the tertiary industry. Investors can then pay attention to market performance.

  Bank of Communications Schroder Fund recommends that the short-term market bottom, it is recommended to wait for changes in long and short forces, to stabilize and stabilize.

  The probability of hedging economic fluctuations with monetary 杭州夜网论坛 and fiscal policies converges. In the final quarter, the economic operation is better than the current panic-expected probability contradiction. The interval for the release of overall economic data in the first quarter from mid-March to mid-April may constitute a potentially important turning point.The performance of the technology and consumer sectors is still worth looking forward to.

BYD (002594) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Industry Shocks Results Bottom, Waiting for Demand to Rise

BYD (002594) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Industry Shocks Results Bottom, Waiting for Demand to Rise

Matters: The company released an interim report. In the first three quarters of 2019, revenue was 93.8 billion U.S. dollars, a fraction of a second + 5%, and net profit attributable to mothers was 1.6 billion U.S. dollars, each time + 3%.Among which, the single quarter revenue in the third quarter was 31.6 billion yuan, -9% in ten years, and the net profit was attributed to the mother1.

2 ‰, -89% a year ago, deducting non-return to mother -1.

500 million, from positive to negative.

Comment: Revenue has fallen slightly over the past few years, which is basically flat month-on-month, and performs better than the company’s car sales.

The company’s 3Q19 revenue was 31.6 billion, exceeding -9%, which was basically unchanged from the previous month’s -1%.

On the sales side, the passenger car BEV 19Q3 was 2.

30,000 vehicles, -22% a year, -50% MoM, PHEV 1.

60,000-53% a year, -16% MoM, the decrease mainly is e5, Qin BEV, Tang PHEV, but the Song series has increased, which has support for revenue and profit.

Fuel 6.

50,000, the previous + 10%, + 52% from the previous month formed a better supplement to the total sales of passenger cars.

The total number of final passenger cars is 10.

40,000, -15% a year, -3% MoM.

Commercial vehicle breakdown average, 3Q18 totals 0.

20,000 vehicles, at least -60%, -38% MoM.

Gross profit contraction resulted in a decrease in net profit from the previous quarter.

The company’s net profit attributable to its mother was 1 in 3Q19.

20,000 yuan, at least -9.

300 million, -5.

900 million / -83%; deducting non-returning mother-1.

5 ‰, at least -6.

600 million, -4.

800 million.

The decrease in net profit after deducting non-returning mothers mainly came from the gross profit end, corresponding to a decrease of 1.6 billion, 5 billion, and a gross margin of 14%, -3 each time.

3PP, MoM-1.

5PP.

The supplementary decline has significantly eroded the company’s profitability and sales volume.

Expenses decreased by 700 million a year and increased slightly by 200 million.

Cash flow and debt are relatively stable.

In the third quarter of 19, the company’s operating cash flow was +5.9 billion, stronger than 1-2Q19, and its investment cash flow was -4.5 billion, maintaining a relatively high intensity but the amount was less than 1-2Q19, and its financing cash flow was -1.6 billion, resulting in a net profit ofThe inflow was mainly due to a dividend distribution of 1.7 billion.

The overall debt rate remained flat, short-term borrowings fell by 2.7 billion compared with the end of 2Q, long-term borrowings + value-added bonds increased by 1.8 billion, and interest expenses for the period were 900 million, each time -2.

400 million, +0.

9 billion.

Waiting for the industry to repair, waiting for new cars to drive demand in 2020.

According to the quarterly report, the company expects that the demand for 北京夜网 4Q electric vehicles is still weak, but Song Pro continues to drive the recovery of the fuel vehicle business; the electronics business improves as downstream demand improves; the improvement of photovoltaics resumes.

The initial guidance for net profit attributable to mothers is 16-18 trillion, corresponding to 0-2 trillion net profit attributable to mothers in 4Q19.

Since the decline of electric vehicle subsidies in July this year, the industry’s demand has weakened, mainly due to the loss of attractive price-performance ratio of models, and the increase in the number of oil vehicle licenses in Guangshen also has a certain impact.

The key to follow-up is to see if the new iterative new model will increase the cost of electric vehicles, especially BYD and foreign and joint venture car companies in 2020, thereby driving 青岛夜网 demand.

Investment suggestion: Considering the impact of supplementary tax rebate on the industry and the performance of the industry and the company in 3Q19, we set the company’s net profit for 2019-2020 to 28.4 billion, 34.

5 billion, 47.

4 million adjusted to 17.

200 million, 24.

3 billion, 44.

200 million, corresponding to a growth rate of -38%, + 42%, + 82%.

The company’s performance in the past two years is affected by the subsidy policy, so we use PB assessment, and the company’s PB hub in the past three years is 2.

7 times, but the company ‘s leading increase in electric vehicles is increasing, and the impact of supplementary errors will gradually come to an end. The company ‘s new technologies and models in 2020 will help boost demand and performance.Based on the above factors, the company will be given a target of PB 2 in 2020.

7 times, corresponding to the target price of 55.

1 yuan, corresponding to 2019-2020 PB 2.

8 times, 2.

7 times, PE is 87 times, 62 times.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

Risk warning: demand for electric vehicles exceeds expectations, battery cost reduction rate exceeds expectations, changes in electric vehicle policies, etc.

New Hope (000876) In-Depth Report: Cross-cycle 100 billion in revenue and 200 billion in market value

New Hope (000876) In-Depth Report: Cross-cycle 100 billion in revenue and 200 billion in market value

Report Summary 1. The company’s pig breeding business has entered a new stage of development: the adjustment of the organizational structure has been completed to remove obstacles to business development.

In 2018, the company set up 5 major BUs, and the “new good model” and “new six model” are under the management of the pig industry committee. At the same time, some of the feed farms are separated from the feed sector and are included in the pig industry committee.

In the organizational structure, the company made part of the profits of the feed department flow into the downstream aquaculture and food industry, avoiding internal consumption of the department; the organizational structure was adjusted and improved, which cleared obstacles for subsequent business development.

The advantages of settlement breeding mode were prominent in the non-blast period.

The construction of high-standard pig houses in settlement breeding mode has outstanding advantages in non-plague prevention and control. At the same time, feed, breeding and slaughtering resources gather to form a closed loop of the industrial chain and control of the entire industrial chain, creating risk exposure.

At present, 杭州夜网论坛 the company’s new pig farm is expected to be in a settlement mode. In the future, the proportion of live pigs in the settlement mode will continue to increase. Under the background of non-pestic normalization, the company’s prevention and control capabilities will be in the first echelon for a long time.

Abundant funds, large financing space and strong financial security.

The company’s rate of return on asset assets and large space for debt financing; wide access to funds and low cost. At present, the company’s unused bank credit line is expected to be more than 30 billion, and the loan interest rate advantage is obvious; the cash on hand is abundant, and the company’s cash at the end of 2018Class assets 57.

7.5 billion, feed business revenue contribution has been stable for more than 40 billion for many years, the company’s financing space and financial security is 青岛夜网 outstanding among peers.

2, 2022 is expected to achieve 100 billion in revenue, 200 billion in market value.

In 2018, the company set a business target of 25 million live pigs to be slaughtered in 2022, sales of 2,500 inches of feed, and 1 billion slaughter of meat and poultry. In May 2019, the company established a distribution incentive exercise condition of at least 120 billion revenue in 2022.

If the company successfully achieves its business goals in 2022, the revenue will reach 140 billion yuan, which is 100% of the 2018 revenue. Higher exercise conditions will also ensure the rapid growth of pig production in the next 4 years.

Calculated by segment estimation method, if the company’s business goals in 2022 are achieved, the company’s market value will reach at least 1837.

500 million, through the cycle, amazing growth.

The profit forecast is given a “Buy” rating.

If the slaughter volume of meat and poultry exceeds 1 billion in 2022, the number of slaughtering pigs will reach 25 million, and the sales target of 2500 feed sales will be achieved. It is estimated that the revenue in 2022 will be nearly 140 billion, and it is estimated that the growth rate will be about 100% in 2018.

According to the estimates of the sub-sectors, if all of the business goals in 2022 are met, the company’s market value will reach 1837.

500 million, with a market value of 777 on May 28, 2019.

As a benchmark of 4.3 billion, the market value has room for growth of 136.

36% with a BUY rating.

Risk Tips 1. Feed material supply and price risks. Rising raw material prices may adversely affect the company’s feed plate business performance. 2. African swine fever, blue ear disease and other epidemics in the breeding industry will affect the interaction of the pig breeding plate.
If a severe epidemic situation occurs in the company’s production base area, it will affect the company’s feed production and production and operation activities.

3. The abnormal fluctuation of pig price will prolong the impact on the profit of the company’s hog section, and the hog production volume and profit of the section may not meet expectations.

4. The emergence of African swine fever vaccine may suspend the process of de-capacity, and pig prices may rise or fall short of expectations.

ZTE (000063): Changes in profit after deducting non-tax in the single quarter of the “crowding of water” on the asset side

ZTE (000063): Changes in profit after deducting non-tax in the single quarter of the “crowding of water” on the asset side

1.

Event: The company deducted non-net profit after the replacement in the third quarter, and the asset disposal income exceeded 2.6 billion: the company achieved revenue of 642 in the first three quarters.

41 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.

32%; Net profit 41.

270,000 yuan, an increase of 156 in ten years.

86%, net profit after deduction 7

100,000 yuan.

Single third quarter revenue was 196.

30,000 yuan, net profit 26.

5.7 billion, an annual increase of 445.

The net profit after deduction of 84% is only 9803.

20,000 yuan, down 18 every year.

61%. The growth of the company’s third quarter net profit was mainly 武汉夜生活网 due to the increase in the income from the operation rights of the properties commissioned by the Shenzhen Bay Headquarters Base.

2.

Single quarter revenue growth, 5G commercial initial orders extended, 4G capacity expansion effect faded, gross profit margin changes: the company’s single third quarter revenue shifted, an increase of 1%.

55%, pressure on revenue growth: We believe that 5G is currently in the early stages of business order changes, and the end of 4G capacity expansion is under pressure for the company’s operator revenue growth.

In addition, the company’s initial 4G capacity expansion and chain reduction caused by the chain’s initial chain reduction were lower.

3. R & D expense ratio is still high, R & D capitalization is reduced, management expenses and financial expenses remain stable: the 都市夜网 company ‘s R & D expense ratio remained at about 15% in the third quarter, the R & D capitalization ratio continued to decline, and the R & D expense scale increased significantly.Roughly, the R & D capitalization expenditure of the company in Q1 from 2018 to 2019 continued to increase rapidly. After Q2 2019, there has been a significant decline, which has negatively driven the company’s current profit growth.

4.

Accounts receivable overall decreased but credit impairment increased, inventory size continued to expand and price loss increased: Although the overall scale of the company’s receivables decreased slightly in the third quarter, the overall credit impairment scale remained high. We judge the company in theThe account receivable accrual has undergone radicalization treatment; the scale of inventories has continued to expand, and the loss of inventory depreciation has continued to expand.

5,

The operating cash flow continued to expand, short debt decreased, and long-term debt increased, reducing the pressure on short-term companies to repay debts. The company’s operating cash flow continued to expand in the third quarter. The company’s debt effectively reduced short-term debt pressure by replacing short-term debt with long-term debt.Conducive to the company’s long-term research and development expansion and expansion.

Profit forecast and estimation: Maintain the company’s profit forecast unchanged, corresponding to the current price of PE28x, 24x, 19x. Considering that the internal 5G construction has entered the deployment stage, it is estimated to fall back to normal levels and maintain a “neutral” rating.

Risk warning: Sino-U.S. Trade war risks; additional issuances will continue to strain cash flow as scheduled; 5G commercial progress is less than expected.