Jinke Co. (000656) first coverage report: Southwest Wangmou Bureau nationwide, high growth value underestimated

Jinke Co. (000656) first coverage report: Southwest Wangmou Bureau nationwide, high growth value underestimated
The expansion from Chengyu to the whole country, the layout of the second and third lines mainly: 1) The company’s national strategic layout was initially completed: the company was established in Chongqing in 1998 and continued to cultivate the Sichuan and Chongqing markets.The new strategy of “One Belt” will lock in the “Ten Core Cities”. As of 2018, the company has completed the strategic layout of “Three Rings and One Belt, eight major urban agglomerations and 25 core cities”; 2) The company’s main layout is second and third tiers, and the soil reserve exceeds 5,600 yuan: the companyPositioning layout is mainly on the second and third tiers, and second and third tier cities account for more than 80%.As of the 2019 Interim Report, the company’s saleable construction area of hand soil storage is about 5,600 GM, and the corresponding value is about 5,433 trillion, which is enough for sales in the next 2-3 years.In terms of different regions, the company’s land acquisition structure has been adjusted. Chongqing, Yangtze River Delta, Hubei, Hunan and Shandong are the new key areas. Among the newly added soil 合肥夜网 reserves in 2019H1, Chongqing + Sichuan accounted for only 27%, of which Chongqing’s share fell from 35% to 12%. The three regions’ total share is still 19%, but the Yangtze River Delta increased to 16%.And Shandong, Henan, Hunan, Hubei, Yunnan and other provinces and cities increased the proportion of new soil storage area. Sales growth leads the industry, and settlement profits are steadily increasing: 1) It is expected that sales in 2020 will exceed 200 billion yuan: the company’s cumulative sales growth in 2017 and 2018 were 97.49% vs. 88.57%, 2019H1 sales amount increased by 40 in ten years.10%, sales area growth rate of 20.37%.In 2019, the company achieved sales of 180.3 billion yuan, exceeding the growth rate by 40%, exceeding the existing gradual sales target and leading the growth rate in the industry.We expect the 天津夜网 company to exceed 2000 trillion in 2020.2) The gross profit margin of settlement has steadily increased, and the net debt ratio has fallen steadily: ROE driven by the growth of sales profit margin has increased significantly. The net profit growth rate of 19H1 is + 289%.The company’s gross profit margin and net sales attributable to mothers are 30.3% and 12.13%, an increase of 1 over 2018.74pct and 2.38 points; the price of three fees is 10.2%, a decline of 2 per year.7pct, in which the sales rate and financial rate decreased by 1.5pct and 1.0pct.At the end of the reporting period, the company’s asset debt ratio and net debt ratio were 83.9%, 147.5%, respectively -0 per year.9pct, -11.9%.The growth rate of the company’s return to net profit was significantly higher than the growth rate of revenue, mainly due to the 17 years of high-margin projects entering the settlement and harvest period, and the gross profit margin increased significantly. The top ten property service industries, the value of property rights is underestimated: 1) the contract area of the property 2.400 million flats, top 10 in the industry: In 2019, Jinke Property Services ranked 10th in the Top 100, with a contract management area of about 2.At 3.9 billion yuan, the external competitiveness is extremely strong, with a total market value of more than 10 billion yuan.2019H1 property revenue scale reached 12.03 ‰, 84% year-on-year, and net profit reached 1.59 trillion, 260% year-on-year.At the same time, the company’s profitability has continued to improve, with gross profit and net profit of 23 in 2019H1.6%, 13.2%, considerable profit level.In addition to the project’s completion and delivery, the company’s projects also have a strong competitiveness in the tripartite expansion.The number of companies entering the city increased from 60+ to 149+ in 2016-2018, surpassing 100 cities in the layout of real estate projects, and the number of projects under management rose from 60 to 149. The average number of projects under management in each city was about 5 and was basically stable., Indicating that the company is highly competitive in terms of tripartite expansion.2) The estimated property is estimated to be close to RMB 10 billion, and the market is not fully found. It may not be ruled out that it may be divided into listings. Currently, the 11th and 12th companies in the industry are China Overseas Property Co., Ltd. and Blu-Ray Garbo Property Co., Ltd., currently (January 10, 2020).The market value is 17 billion Hong Kong dollars, 87.The total market value of the company’s property sector is more than 10 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the market value of the parent company is about 7.6 billion. High-quality growth and high dividends attract long-term investment, and the equity structure is stable: The company’s actual controller is Huang Hongyun, whose concerted actions hold about 30% of the total shares, and the second largest shareholder Sunac shares (less than 30% of the redemption offer)In the third quarter of 2019, Qianhai Life Insurance’s new top ten shareholders, the company’s high dividends and high dividends, are attractive as financial investment targets. The company passed the employee shareholding incentive plan in June 2019 and stipulated that when the company’s net profit in 2019-2022 increased by 30%, 60%, 90%, and 110% compared to 2018, the company’s dividend distribution in 201848%, the index rate is 5.82%, we expect the existing equity structure to try to maintain stability with considerable dividends. Investment suggestion: The company’s strategic layout from the region to the country has achieved remarkable results, and its positioning is mainly on the second and third tiers. We expect sales to exceed 200 billion, leading the industry in growth rate, and the company’s property management business is underestimated. We estimate the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to be 54.08 million yuan, 68.2.7 billion, 82.8.7 billion, of which the real estate sector’s net profit attributable to mothers for 19 years was 50.52 trillion, with reference to comparable companies’ consensus PE of 9 times in 2019, corresponding to a city ranking of 454.710,000 yuan, the property sector is expected to return to net profit in 20192.At 92 million US dollars, we give the company’s property management business a consensus PE of 26 times in 2019, corresponding to a market variable of 76.07 billion, a reasonable market value should be 530.7.7 billion.Corresponds to the target price of 9.94 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected, project development is less than expected, financing cost control is less than expected